BERLIN — In a notable yet somewhat disappointing election outcome, the conservative opposition under Friedrich Merz emerged with a victory on Sunday in Germany. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) significantly amplified its support, marking the highest level of backing for such a party since the end of World War II, according to initial projections.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged defeat for his center-left Social Democrats, describing the election results as “bitter.” The projections from ARD and ZDF public television placed his party in third place, achieving its poorest post-war performance in a national parliamentary election.
Merz expressed a desire to establish a coalition government by Easter, but the path to forming such a partnership appears fraught with challenges.
Public discontent was palpable during the election, which was held seven months earlier than originally scheduled after Scholz’s coalition fell apart last November. The political atmosphere was characterized by dissatisfaction and a lack of enthusiasm among voters towards the candidates.
Key issues that dominated the campaign included the stagnation of Germany’s economy and demands for stricter immigration policies. These topics became contentious, particularly as Merz advocated for more stringent measures in recent weeks. Additionally, the election backdrop was set against rising uncertainties regarding Ukraine’s future and Europe’s alliance with the United States.
Germany, being the most populous nation in the European Union and a pivotal member of NATO, plays a vital role not just in European politics but also as Ukraine’s second-largest military supplier after the U.S. The nation is expected to be influential in addressing Europe’s future challenges, particularly in light of the confrontational foreign and trade policies of the Trump administration.
Projections indicated that Merz’s bloc garnered around 28.5% of the votes, while the anti-immigration AfD surged to about 20.5%, nearly doubling its 2021 performance. Scholz’s Social Democrats received just over 16%, marking a significant decline from previous elections, below their prior low of 20.5% in 2017. The Greens, the remaining partners in the outgoing government, secured about 12%.
Among smaller parties, the hard-left Left Party improved its position, claiming up to 9% of the vote, marking a notable comeback. Conversely, the pro-business Free Democrats, once part of the coalition government, risk losing their seats with around 4.5%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was hovering near the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
The feasibility of Merz forming a governing coalition will largely depend on whether the BSW qualifies for parliament, as a partnership with Scholz’s Social Democrats or possibly the Greens may be needed to secure a majority. Merz expressed determination, stating, “the most important thing is to reestablish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible.” He acknowledged the responsibility and complexity of the task ahead, emphasizing that prolonged coalition discussions would not be beneficial given global circumstances.
The Greens’ Chancellor candidate, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, advised Merz to adopt a more moderate approach following a contentious campaign. He observed a general weakening of the political center and urged scrutiny among all parties involved.
The Greens emerged relatively unscathed from their participation in the unpopular government. Matthias Miersch, the Social Democrats’ general secretary, remarked that the outcome of the election had been anticipated, emphasizing that the fallout was not solely a recent phenomenon.
The AfD leadership celebrated their historic gains, with co-leader Tino Chrupalla declaring the party had successfully established itself as a political center, moving beyond the fringe. The party, which previously achieved 12.6% in 2017 when it entered national parliament, saw major progress this time.
AfD’s Chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel, indicated an openness for coalition discussions with Merz’s party, asserting that policy changes in Germany would require such cooperation. However, Merz has firmly rejected any alliance with AfD, a stance common among mainstream parties. In a televised discussion with Weidel and other leaders, he reiterated the fundamental ideological differences that exclude any potential collaboration.
Scholz condemned AfD’s rise, firmly declaring that such a shift in political sentiment should never be tolerated. He emphasized his determination to not accept the party’s success in securing a foothold in German politics.
With more than 59 million citizens eligible to vote in the election for the 630 members of the Bundestag, Germany faces an uncertain political future as the newly elected representatives prepare to assume their roles in the iconic Berlin Reichstag building.
