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Wisconsin’s Spring Primary: Expectations and Key Insights

WISCONSIN PRIMARY PREPARES FOR A CRUCIAL ELECTION DAY

Wisconsin’s chief education official, State Superintendent Jill Underly, is set to face her first significant challenge in her reelection campaign during the spring primary, taking place on Tuesday. Underly, who won her position in 2021, is contesting against two opponents in a considerably altered political landscape.

Underly is vying for a second four-year term in this nonpartisan role. Her challengers include Jeff Wright, who serves as the superintendent of the Sauk Prairie School District, and Brittany Kinser, an education consultant who has established a literacy initiative within the state.

The primary has significant stakes, as the top two candidates will move on to the general election scheduled for April 1. Alongside the state superintendent’s race, voters will also engage in a contentious election for the state Supreme Court. The outcome will influence the management of approximately 900,000 students across almost 2,200 schools, supported by 111,000 staff members, and governed by an annual budget hovering around $9 billion.

Underly enjoys support from the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and the state affiliate of the American Federation of Teachers. Although the Wisconsin Education Association Council (WEAC), the state’s largest teachers’ union, backed Underly in 2021, they have opted not to endorse any candidate this year. However, their political action committee has recommended voters consider Wright.

Wright has previously run as a Democrat for the state Assembly in 2016 and 2018 but was unsuccessful, capturing about 49% of the vote in each attempt. Meanwhile, Kinser positions herself as a conservative candidate, promoting Republican-supported initiatives that advocate for alternative education funding outside traditional public schooling. Her campaign has gained traction, having raised $316,000 by early February, significantly outpacing Wright’s $123,000 and Underly’s $121,000.

In the 2021 primary, Underly narrowly won against seven candidates with 27% of the vote. With several candidates aligned with the Democratic Party, none effectively positioned themselves as a strong alternative to Underly. This dynamic facilitated the solo Republican candidate, Deborah Kerr, in securing a spot for the general election with 26% of the votes. Underly ended up winning that election with a decisive 58% against Kerr.

This year’s primary presents a different scenario, with three contenders competing for two advancement spots. The race encapsulates various sub-contests: Underly and Wright are appealing to Democratic voters, while Kinser attempts to solidify Republican support while also reaching out to independent voters. For her to secure a place in the April election, Kinser would need to surpass Kerr’s prior performance of 26% in a potentially close battle between Underly and Wright.

Tuesday marks the state’s first election following Republican Donald Trump’s narrow victory in Wisconsin during the November presidential election. The previous primary took place shortly after Democrat Joe Biden’s win against Trump in both Wisconsin and the Electoral College.

Regarding the election process, the vote counting may extend, as trailing candidates can request a recount if the margin is less than 1%. The election’s outcome may be declared earlier if there is a clear leading margin that precludes the possibility of a recount altering results.

As Tuesday approaches, here’s what to anticipate:

– The Wisconsin spring primary will take place on Tuesday, with polls closing at 9 p.m. ET.
– The ballot includes the nonpartisan primary for state superintendent, the only statewide election, although local elections will also occur.
– Any registered voter can participate in this primary.
– As of February 1, there are nearly 3.9 million active registered voters in Wisconsin, as the state does not classify voters by party affiliation.

The last primary for state superintendent occurred in 2021 as the sole statewide contest, drawing approximately 326,000 votes—around 9% of registered voters or 7% of the voting age population—with 47% of ballots cast prior to Primary Day.

As of last Thursday, around 90,000 ballots had already been submitted ahead of the primary.

Typically, vote counting takes several hours following the close of polls. Recent elections reported initial results shortly after polls closed, with the overwhelming majority of votes counted by early morning the following day.

With just 42 days remaining until Wisconsin’s spring election on April 1, the campaign dynamics are gaining momentum, and all eyes will be on the results of Tuesday’s primary.

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