In a chilling update, volcanologist Dr. Robin George Andrews warned that stopping the asteroid may no longer be possible.
“We have less than eight years to potentially deal with it,” he posted on X. “You need ten years or more to build, plan, and execute an asteroid deflection mission. We don’t have much time.”
NASA’s DART Mission Proved Deflection Works
NASA has already demonstrated that an asteroid can be pushed off course. In September 2022, the DART spacecraft successfully crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos, altering its orbit.
But Andrews cautions that a similar strategy may not work for 2024 YR4. “Just because DART worked doesn’t mean we can deflect any asteroid whenever we want,” he said. “So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART.”
Could an Attempt Make Things Worse?
Most asteroids are not solid rock but loose piles of debris held together by weak gravity. If 2024 YR4 is one of these, a spacecraft impact could scatter debris toward Earth instead of pushing it away.
There is also a risk that an imperfect deflection could change the impact location rather than prevent the collision entirely. “It could still hit Earth, just somewhere else that wasn’t originally at risk,” Andrews explained.
How Dangerous Would an Impact Be?
If the asteroid strikes an ocean or an uninhabited desert, the damage could be minimal. However, if it hits a city, the destruction could be catastrophic.
Scientists estimate that an asteroid of this size hits Earth about once every 5,000 years. The infamous Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened over 830 square miles of forest in Siberia, was caused by an object about the same size as 2024 YR4.
Scientists Urge Caution but Not Panic
Despite the alarming possibility of an impact, experts say there is still a high chance the risk will decrease as more observations refine the asteroid’s orbit.
“When more data comes in, it’s likely the impact odds will drop to zero,” Andrews reassured.
However, with NASA’s own reports suggesting that Earth is not prepared for an asteroid impact, the question remains: what if 2024 YR4 stays on a collision course?
