The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its long-term forecasts for the U.S. population, now anticipating that the country will have 372 million residents in 30 years. This adjustment reflects a 2.8% decrease from last year’s estimate, attributed to falling birth rates and a reduction in expected immigration levels.
Previously, the CBO had projected a population of 383 million by 2053, but this week’s revision has lowered that figure by 11 million. As of January 1, the U.S. population was approximately 341 million, with projections indicating it could reach 350 million by the end of the year.
According to the CBO’s analysis, population growth is set to decelerate significantly over the next 30 years. In the first decade, the average annual growth rate will hover around 0.4%. Post-2036, this rate is expected to drop to an average of just 0.1% through 2055.
Overall, the average yearly growth rate for the upcoming three decades stands at 0.2%, which is projected to be less than one-quarter of what was observed from 1975 to 2024.
The CBO indicates that without immigration, the U.S. population could begin to decline as early as 2033. This potential decline is largely due to ongoing low fertility rates, which are not sufficient to maintain population levels, as the rates are expected to fall from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman over the next 30 years. The fertility replacement rate is typically around 2.1 births per woman.
These latest population projections are particularly influenced by an executive order implemented last June that temporarily halts asylum processing at the U.S. border if officials report being overwhelmed, impacting likely immigration patterns.
The CBO compiles these projections annually to assist in shaping federal budget decisions and economic policy, as well as to estimate Social Security payroll taxes and benefits. It’s important to note that the CBO’s estimates tend to be higher than those produced by the U.S. Census Bureau. While the Census Bureau tracks the resident population, the CBO’s projections encompass not only residents but also U.S. citizens and others living abroad who qualify for certain benefits. Additionally, the CBO predicts an increase in immigration compared to the Census Bureau’s forecasts.
