In Paris, pastry chef Arnaud Delmontel meticulously prepares dough for croissants and pains au chocolat, which emerge from his patisserie golden and aromatic. Recently, he has noted a staggering 25% increase in the price of butter since September. Despite this surge, he steadfastly refuses to follow the trend among some of his competitors who have opted for margarine instead of the traditional butter. Delmontel believes this alteration takes away from the authentic nature of a croissant. “A croissant is made with butter,” he emphasizes.

Throughout Europe, the cost of butter has escalated dramatically over the past year, following a period of inflation amplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine. This rising cost of butter poses a significant challenge for consumers, especially with the holiday baking season approaching. Recent statistics indicate that, on average, butter prices across the 27-member European Union skyrocketed by 19% from October 2023 to October 2024, with Slovakia experiencing a 49% increase and Germany and the Czech Republic both seeing reported hikes of 40%. Individual countries have also continued to notice price rises in recent months.

For instance, in Germany, a typical 250-gram (8.8-ounce) block of butter now ranges between 2.40 and 4 euros ($2.49 to $4.15), influenced by the growing global shortage of milk due to dropping production levels in major exporting countries like the United States and New Zealand, according to market analyst Mariusz Dziwulski from PKO Bank Polski in Warsaw. European butter is distinct for its higher fat content compared to its U.S. counterpart and is usually sold in standard weights, preventing food producers from masking price increases through reduced packaging sizes—a tactic often referred to as “shrinkflation.”

The historical context reveals that a butter shortage in 19th century France led to the inception of margarine, yet the French are still among the continent’s top butter consumers, frequently using it in a variety of culinary preparations. In Poland, the significance of butter is such that the government maintains a strategic stockpile, akin to its reserves for national gas or COVID-19 vaccines. Recently, the Polish government announced it would release 1,000 tons of frozen butter to help stabilize the market. Butter prices in Poland soared by 11.4% between early November and early December and have risen 49.2% year-over-year, reaching nearly 37 Polish zlotys, approximately $9 per kilogram (2.2 pounds), as of early December 2023, as reported by the National Support Center for Agriculture.

Local resident Danuta Osinska, a 77-year-old woman, shared her struggles while shopping at a discount store in Warsaw, noting the escalating costs. Although she and her husband enjoy butter with their meals, they find it increasingly difficult to afford it on their limited pensions. Consequently, they have started to substitute with margarine, even though they feel it does not compare in taste quality. “There is no comparison,” she laments. “Things are getting harder and harder.”

This rise in butter prices has also turned into a political concern in Poland, with rising tensions as the nation prepares for a presidential election next year. Opponents of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk are directing blame toward his Civic Platform party for the inflation, while the party’s presidential candidate criticizes the national bank’s governor from the opposing political sphere for exacerbating the issue.

Consumer choices have become increasingly influenced by butter prices, leading to price wars among grocery chains. These competitive battles at times have kept prices artificially low, adversely affecting dairy farmers, as noted by Agnieszka Maliszewska, the director of the Polish Chamber of Milk. She attributes the overall increased prices to multiple factors, including a reduction in milk fat availability as dairy farmers across Europe struggle with profitability and challenges in their operations. The ongoing war in Ukraine has also contributed to higher energy costs impacting milk production. While Maliszewska is skeptical about climate change directly affecting production, economist Dziwulski suggests that droughts could be a contributing factor, alongside issues like an outbreak of bluetongue disease, which threatens livestock.

In the U.S., a comparable increase in butter prices was experienced in 2022, where prices reached an average of $4.88 per pound, a dramatic 33% rise over the year, influenced by high feed costs and extreme weather conditions adversely affecting dairy farming. Butter prices in the U.S. initially dipped in 2023 but skyrocketed again, peaking at $5 per pound in September, contributing to voter discontent amid the backdrop of the presidential elections.

Countries in Southern Europe that mainly use olive oil in their diets appear less affected by butter inflation, as they consume it in much smaller quantities. In Italy, the average price of butter surged by 44% over the past year; however, the nation’s preference for olive oil, even in some desserts, renders the rising prices of butter less alarming compared to butter-centric regions of Europe.

For Delmontel, the Parisian pastry chef, rising ingredient costs place tremendous pressure on small business owners. While he remains committed to using butter instead of margarine and has not reduced the size of his croissants, he acknowledges that some fellow bakers are shrinking their pastries to help manage costs. “Or else you squeeze it out of your profit margin,” he states.