San Francisco 49ers (6-8) will clash with the Miami Dolphins (6-8) this coming Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST, as CBS broadcasts this exciting matchup. The betting odds from BetMGM indicate a slight advantage for the Dolphins, who are favored by 2.5 points. Both teams have struggled against the spread this season, ending with records of 5-9. Historically, the Dolphins lead the series 8-6, but the 49ers secured a victory in their last encounter, winning 33-17 in Santa Clara, California, on December 4, 2022. The previous week, the 49ers were edged out by the Rams, 12-6, while the Dolphins suffered a 20-12 loss to the Texans.
Examining their respective performances, the 49ers’ offense ranks 8th overall, with a notable 8th in rushing and 10th in passing, although they sit at 15th in scoring. Their defense is also strong, sitting 3rd overall, 15th against the run, 2nd against the pass, and 17th in scoring. In contrast, the Dolphins’ offense is ranked 20th overall, struggling particularly with a 26th position in rushing, while their passing game holds the 14th rank. Defensively, Miami is 6th overall, performing well with an 8th ranking against the run and pass, and positioned 13th in scoring. Both teams are dealing with turnover differentials, with the 49ers sitting at minus-4 and the Dolphins at minus-5.
A standout player for the 49ers is linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who made an impressive return last week after recovering from an Achilles tendon injury he faced during the last season’s Super Bowl. He recorded eight tackles in the first half, infusing energy and physicality into San Francisco’s defense, although he had to sit out much of the second half due to soreness. Meanwhile, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looks to recover from what can be characterized as one of his poorest performances of the season against the Texans, where he recorded four turnovers, including a fumble and three interceptions, resulting in a dismal passer rating of just 60.0.
A critical matchup to watch will be the Dolphins’ offensive line against the formidable defensive line of the 49ers. Miami played last week without its top three tackles, which greatly hindered their run blocking and pass protection efforts against Houston’s defensive front. Should tackles Terron Armstead (knee) and Kendall Lamm (knee) remain absent this week, the Dolphins may find it challenging to contend with a San Francisco defensive line, prominently featuring Nick Bosa, who has tallied 40 tackles and seven sacks this season.
In terms of injuries, the 49ers anticipate missing left tackle Trent Williams for a fifth consecutive game due to an ankle issue. Running back Isaac Guerendo has also been dealing with a hamstring injury, casting doubt on his availability for Sunday. For the Dolphins, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was recently added to the injury report with a hip concern, while his left tackle Terron Armstead and wide receiver Tyreek Hill were sidelined in practice. Additionally, injuries to left tackle Kendall Lamm and receiver Jaylen Waddle raise further concerns about their status for the game.
This matchup marks the 15th encounter between the 49ers and Dolphins, with the home team winning four of the last five confrontations. Notably, this will be the second time head coach Mike McDaniel faces his former team since taking over in Miami. Prior to this, McDaniel served various coaching roles in San Francisco, including run game coordinator and offensive coordinator. Furthermore, the 49ers have not played in Miami since 2016.
In terms of team performance, the 49ers have dropped four of their last five games, risking their first losing season since 2020 with another defeat. Last week’s output of 191 yards marked the lowest for the team in eight seasons under coach Kyle Shanahan, and the six points they scored were the fewest since his debut. San Francisco has notably not scored a touchdown or reached the red zone in their last game, a first since October 14, 2012. They have maintained a low punt rate at just 28.1%, placing them among the lowest in the NFL, while allowing an NFL-low 33 plays of 20 yards or more from scrimmage. On individual performance, wide receiver Deebo Samuel hits a peculiar milestone, being the first WR since 2019 to have five consecutive games with at least three targets while receiving less than 25 yards. Defensive standout Fred Warner continues to impress, being one of only five players with over 100 tackles for seven straight seasons.
On the Dolphins’ side, wide receiver Tyreek Hill is aiming for two more touchdowns in the remaining three games to match a significant milestone, which would place him among the first players in NFL history to have seven scrimmage touchdowns during the first nine seasons of their career. Additionally, he needs just 56 receiving yards to hit 11,000 in his career. Tagovailoa also had a rough outing last week with multiple interceptions again, which included his second such game of the season, echoing his performance against Buffalo earlier in the season. The Dolphins have struggled on third down, converting only nine of 36 in the last three games. Their rushing game has taken a decline, transitioning from the top-ranked rushing offense last season to the second-worst average this season, with a drop to just 3.9 yards per carry.
A fantasy tip for this matchup would be to consider tight end Jonnu Smith, who has made an impact recently with 18 catches for 232 yards and four touchdowns over the past three home games.