San Francisco (6-8) will take on Miami (6-8) this Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST, broadcast on CBS. According to BetMGM’s NFL odds, the Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points. Both teams have struggled against the spread, with the 49ers sitting at 5-9 and the Dolphins at the same record. Historically, the Dolphins lead the series 8-6, but the last encounter saw the 49ers triumph 33-17 in Santa Clara, California, on December 4, 2022. Last week, the 49ers faced a setback against the Rams, losing 12-6, while the Dolphins fell short against Houston with a score of 20-12.
Examining the teams’ performance metrics, the 49ers are ranked 8th in overall offense, with solid placement in rushing (8th) and passing (10th), but only 15th in scoring. Their defense is notably strong, ranking 3rd overall and excelling particularly in the passing game (2nd). In contrast, the Dolphins’ offense is leaving much to be desired, sitting at 20th overall, plummeting to 26th in rushing, while their passing offense ranks 14th, and they are 24th in scoring. Their defense, however, is competitive, rated 6th overall with strengths in both rushing (8th) and passing (8th). Both teams are struggling with turnovers, with the 49ers at a minus-4 differential and the Dolphins at minus-5.
For the 49ers, linebacker Dre Greenlaw returns after suffering an Achilles tendon injury during last season’s Super Bowl. He had a dynamic performance last week, recording eight tackles in the first half and bringing much-needed vigor to the San Francisco defensive lineup. After experiencing some soreness, he seems poised to contribute fully in the upcoming game. For the Dolphins, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa aims to recover from a disappointing outing last week where he had four turnovers—one fumble and three interceptions—resulting in his second-lowest passer rating this season at 60.0.
A critical matchup to keep an eye on will be the Dolphins’ offensive line against the 49ers’ defensive line. Miami faced significant challenges last week without their top three tackles, leading to struggles in both the running and passing game against Houston’s defense. If tackles Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm are again absent, it could spell trouble against a formidable 49ers’ defensive front, highlighted by Nick Bosa, who boasts 40 tackles and seven sacks this season.
In terms of injuries, the 49ers will be missing left tackle Trent Williams for the fifth consecutive game, while running back Isaac Guerendo has also been ruled out due to a hamstring issue. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable with an oblique injury. On the Dolphins’ side, Tagovailoa displayed a hip injury during the week but fully practiced on Friday, leading head coach Mike McDaniel to downplay the concern. Key contributors like receiver Jaylen Waddle (doubtful), and players such as Tyreek Hill, Armstead, Bradley Chubb, and Lamm are all listed as questionable. Additionally, receiver Grant DuBose has been placed on injured reserve after suffering a concussion in last week’s game.
This game marks the 15th clash between these two teams, with the home team winning four of their last five matchups. This will also be the second encounter for head coach Mike McDaniel against his former squad, as he was previously part of their coaching staff before joining Miami in 2022. San Francisco hasn’t visited Miami since 2016.
In recent statistics, the 49ers have dropped four out of their last five games, facing the prospect of their first losing season since 2020 with another defeat. The team’s struggles were evident last week, as they gained just 191 yards—the lowest total for the franchise under coach Kyle Shanahan in regular season play—while their six points marked the fewest since Shanahan’s debut in 2017. The 49ers also failed to enter the red zone or score a touchdown for the first time since October 14, 2012. While the team maintains a low punting rate at 28.1%, indicating they sustain drives better than average, they also rank first in allowing a mere 33 plays of over 20 yards from scrimmage this season. For the Dolphins, Tyreek Hill is on the brink of another career milestone, needing just two touchdowns to have at least seven in every season of his career. He also requires 56 more receiving yards to reach the 11,000-yard mark. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa experiences an up-and-down season with another multiple-interception outing last week, mirroring an earlier performance against Buffalo.
As a fantasy tip, Tight End Jonnu Smith has been a valuable asset in recent home games, recording 18 receptions for 232 yards and four touchdowns.
