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An Overview of Outcomes from Blinken’s 11th Visit to the Middle East

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An Overview of Outcomes from Blinken’s 11th Visit to the Middle East

LONDON — Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded his weeklong tour of the Middle East on Friday with an unexpected stop in London, without achieving a significant cease-fire advancement for Gaza, which did not come as a surprise to U.S. and Arab officials. They characterized the escalating regional tensions as a “nightmare.”

The visit encompassed Israel, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, anticipated after President Joe Biden announced earlier this month that he would send Blinken to the region following Israel’s assassination of Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar. Blinken described this event as a potential catalyst for renewed discussions on a cease-fire proposal that had been stagnant for several months.

During the trip, Blinken and other American officials evaluated various strategies aimed at facilitating the release of Israeli hostages while hoping to end the ongoing and destructive conflict in Gaza. The primary focus this week shifted toward planning for Palestinian governance post-conflict, as well as addressing reconstruction and security in the broader region.

The ramifications of the war were evident on Blinken’s last day in Tel Aviv when air raid sirens sounded at the hotel where U.S. officials and reporters were staying just before his departure. The Israeli military reported that two rockets launched from Lebanon were intercepted, and smoke could be seen from the premises.

Here are key insights from Blinken’s 11th trip to the Middle East since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict over a year ago:

Reviving Peace Talks

Although optimism was low regarding an agreement between Israel and Hamas, U.S. and Israeli officials announced plans for negotiators to arrive in Qatar shortly to resume discussions after weeks of inactivity. Qatar has played a significant role as a mediator between the two parties. In a statement from Doha, Blinken mentioned that the negotiators would be returning to the Gulf state soon, emphasizing the need to ascertain whether Hamas is ready to engage in talks. However, Hamas representatives have yet to indicate any shift in their position.

Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan reiterated through Al Mayadeen that their stance remains unchanged, noting that they had received updates from mediators in Cairo about the possibility of renewing cease-fire negotiations. Still, he stressed that Hamas demands a halt to Israel’s military operations in Gaza and a complete withdrawal from the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the head of Mossad would travel to Qatar to meet with CIA director Bill Burns and the Qatari prime minister on Sunday.

Setting Clear Limits

Throughout his trip, U.S. officials challenged various aspects of how Israel has been conducting the war, particularly concerning a controversial plan involving northern Gaza, while urging Israel to comply with humanitarian laws to ensure aid reaches the Palestinian population adequately.

Just prior to leaving Tel Aviv, Blinken and U.S. officials confronted Netanyahu and his aides regarding a rumored Israeli strategy that would mandate civilians leave northern Gaza, leaving those who remained at risk of starvation or death. A senior State Department official disclosed that both Netanyahu and his aide Ron Dermer denied the existence of the so-called “General’s Plan,” emphasizing that perceptions of such a plan were harmful.

The U.S. then encouraged Israeli officials to publicly clarify their stance to dispel any misconceptions about their policies. In the same discussions, Blinken touched on the issue of aid access to Gaza, following a stern communication he and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had sent, urging action to remedy the dire humanitarian situation in the area.

Blinken outlined several specific areas in which improvements were essential, providing a timeline of 30 days to start visible progress. Shortly thereafter, in Doha, he declared an additional $135 million in U.S. aid to the Palestinians, reiterating that without access for aid to the civilians in need, the funding would be ineffective.

Arab Partners’ Frustration

Numerous Arab leaders voiced their frustration with the deadlock in cease-fire negotiations, now over a year into the conflict. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, expressed disappointment that mediators had come close to a resolution on multiple occasions in recent months only to have those efforts fall apart.

“Every time we got closer to a solution, unfortunately, there were many steps back,” he remarked to the press in Doha. He added that there would be repercussions if any party failed to engage constructively in the ongoing negotiations.

Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, conveyed an even stronger message directly to Blinken during their London meeting, asserting that the “Israeli government is not listening to anyone.” He characterized the ongoing conflicts as a “nightmare” the region continues to endure.

“The only way to save the region is for Israel to cease its hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon, and to halt the unilateral and illegal actions in the West Bank that further escalate tensions,” Safadi said.

Time Running Out

Many observers pondered whether the timing of Blinken’s visit represented a last-ditch effort by the Biden administration to secure even minimal progress in the region before the upcoming U.S. presidential election. However, Blinken pointed to Sinwar’s assassination as presenting a necessary opportunity for mediators who had been striving to return to negotiations over the past month.

Discussions surrounding a post-war framework, pushed by the U.S., aim to rebuild trust among various stakeholders after a series of deadly airstrikes over the summer, including the elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

This trip marks Blinken’s final visit to the region before Election Day in 11 days, coinciding with Democrats’ hopes for a cease-fire agreement prior to American voters going to the polls. Such an agreement would arguably help mitigate mounting criticism directed at Vice President Kamala Harris regarding the administration’s response to the war, which has resulted in the deaths of over 42,000 Palestinians.

Local health officials do not distinguish between militants and civilians in their fatalities count but report that women and children comprise more than half of those killed.