BNEI BARAK, Israel — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is navigating turbulent political waters as a pivotal vote to potentially dissolve parliament looms on Wednesday. Significant members of Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to defy him, posing a possible shake-up of his far-right government.
Despite the political strife Netanyahu faces, including longstanding corruption charges, and the backlash over his administration’s handling of the grave October 7, 2023, attack led by Hamas, many doubt this will mark the end of his political journey or his government. An opposition-led move to dissolve parliament could only succeed if Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies break ranks due to unfulfilled promises regarding their exemption from military service — an issue that has sharply divided Israeli society amidst the enduring conflict in Gaza.
There are suspicions that the ultra-Orthodox parties might simply be maneuvering for political leverage, and Netanyahu could clinch an eleventh-hour agreement. However, should Wednesday’s vote proceed, it represents the most significant threat to his administration since the onset of the war. The fallout of a governmental collapse could be considerable for both Israel and the hostilities in Gaza.
**The Ultra-Orthodox and Military Service**
Traditionally, Israeli Jewish males undergo mandatory military service of nearly three years, with two years for females. However, the ultra-Orthodox community, constituting about 13% of Israeli society, has long been exempt if engaged full-time in religious studies, a policy that has stirred public resentment. This cohort’s exemption, coupled with associated government subsidies, is a contentious issue.
Since the 2023 Hamas attacks, Israel’s military has seen its largest mobilization since the 1973 Mideast conflict, activating 360,000 reservists. The ongoing conflict has strained military resources, with some reservists declining further deployments, leading the Israeli Defense Forces to appeal via social media for additional reservists. The long-standing exemption dates back to Israel’s establishment in 1948 when it was initially extended to a small group of scholarly individuals in response to the Holocaust’s devastation of Jewish learning.
Over decades, the number of exempted individuals has grown massively due to influence from powerful religious factions. Despite a 2017 ruling from Israel’s Supreme Court deeming these exemptions illegal, progress on a substitute legislative measure has been stalled by repeated governmental delays. Mandatory military service, widely perceived as a unifying experience among Israel’s Jewish populace, faces resistance from the ultra-Orthodox, who wish to preserve their religious traditions.
Rabbi Ephraim Luft, an influential figure in Bnei Barak’s ultra-Orthodox community, articulated reservations about service, suggesting that conscription interferes with religious customs. “Our ancestors upheld the faith despite dire repercussions throughout history,” Luft stated, drawing a provocative parallel between traditional military drafts and previous religious persecutions.
**Implications for the Ultra-Orthodox Leadership**
Netanyahu’s coalition comprises ultra-Orthodox parties integral to its survival, specifically Shas and Degel HaTorah. Voting to dissolve the parliamentary setup could force sudden elections, particularly if Shas, typically a Netanyahu ally, follows through on threats to back the dissolution absent satisfactory negotiations regarding conscription laws.
Political analyst Shuki Friedman attributes the ultra-Orthodox parties’ focus to securing exemptions over broader national interests such as the war and economic stability. With high birth rates, the ultra-Orthodox community is Israel’s fastest-growing, witnessing annual additions of approximately 13,000 men eligible for conscription, yet only a minor fraction enlists, as per recent parliamentary committee findings.
While the October upheaval seemed to momentarily galvanize enlistment motivation among these groups, it has not manifested significantly. Military authorities have refrained from commenting on these enlistment dynamics.
**The Fallout of Dissolution**
Even if Wednesday’s parliamentary vote succeeds in passing, it must endure bureaucratic barriers, including sequential rounds of voting, stalling potential consequences, explains Gayil Talshir of Hebrew University. Scheduled elections in Israel are anticipated in late 2026, yet the immediate dissolution vote’s impact remains speculative.
Talshir, with Friedman, surmises that a successful dissolution is improbable. Abstaining ultra-Orthodox votes might halt proceedings, disallowing a similar vote for half a year. Yet, pressures from rabbinical counselors may eventually prompt ultra-Orthodox parties to demand swift legislative action on draft exemptions or risk further parliamentary impasses.
Netanyahu’s administration faces a dire scenario where draft notices are being issued among the ultra-Orthodox, leading to fears of conscription-related arrests, albeit minimal in number, according to experts like Friedman.
**Gaza Conflict and Hostage Dilemmas**
Amidst ongoing hostilities, Netanyahu underscores the vital need for Israeli unity against existing threats. However, should ultra-Orthodox influences within the government pivot towards seeking swift conflict resolution, Netanyahu’s coalition may encounter unexpected turns.
Talshir assesses that the ultra-Orthodox agendas could postulate an advantageous position in wartime cessation, wherein regulatory constraints currently facing their communities could dissipate.
With intricate intra-political dynamics at play, the stability of Netanyahu’s government hangs in the balance as strategic decisions confront both domestic legislation and external military engagements.