The initial phase of the ceasefire that temporarily halted 15 months of intense conflict between Israel and Hamas militants is scheduled to conclude on Saturday, with uncertainty surrounding subsequent developments.
Despite discussions intended for a second phase, in which Hamas would release all remaining hostages from the October 7, 2023, attack—triggering the conflict—in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, negotiations have yet to reach fruition. Instead, preliminary talks have faced continuous disputes.
In the first phase, concluding on March 1, Hamas has released all 25 living hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and has handed over the bodies of four captives, with expectations to release four more, although this remains unconfirmed for Thursday’s schedule. This leaves over 60 captives remaining, about half of whom are presumed deceased. Israel, on the other hand, has delayed the planned release of approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners due to disputes regarding the treatment of captives, who were made to display themselves before crowds.
Reports indicate that Israel is pushing for an extension of the current ceasefire phase to free additional captives, while Hamas insists that no further negotiations will take place until the delayed prisoners are released. The negotiations surrounding Phase 2 promise to be even more challenging.
Phase 2 is anticipated to be particularly complex, potentially forcing Israel to choose between its dual objectives—securing the safe return of hostages and defeating the captors. Despite being weakened, Hamas retains its grip on power without facing internal opposition. It demands a lasting ceasefire and a complete Israeli withdrawal in return for the remaining hostages—a crucial bargaining point. A third phase would involve exchanging remains and initiating Gaza’s extensive reconstruction, expected to require years and substantial financial resources.
Steve Witkoff, former Mideast envoy from the Trump administration, plans to return to the region this week, aiming to extend Phase 1 to allow more time for Phase 2 negotiations, as stated during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Meanwhile, Egypt, a key mediator, demands the start of Phase 2 negotiations before considering an extension of the current ceasefire, according to anonymous Egyptian officials. An official mentioned that initiating Phase 2 talks would keep the ceasefire in effect, facilitating continued aid into Gaza, albeit without additional hostage releases beyond current agreements.
Hamas has previously expressed willingness to prolong the talks briefly to solidify deals for Phase 2, which was prior to Israel’s suspension of prisoner releases. An Egyptian official noted that Egypt also requires Israel to complete its withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor on Gaza’s Egyptian border before progressing further. The agreement dictates that this withdrawal should commence this weekend and be finalized within eight days.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly clarified plans for the weekend, facing pressure from hardline coalition partners to resume hostilities against Hamas. Yet, following images showing the poor condition of recently freed hostages, there is also significant public push for bringing all the hostages safely home. Witkoff mentioned Netanyahu’s steadfast commitment to retrieving all hostages, adding that Hamas cannot partake in Gaza’s governance post-war.
Hamas counters by indicating readiness to transfer Gaza’s control to other Palestinian authorities. However, the group, which refuses to recognize Israel’s existence, remains deeply entrenched in the area and insists that disarmament is contingent upon Israel ending its occupation of areas captured during the 1967 Mideast war, which Palestinians see as future state territories. Hamas has rebuffed Israeli proposals that suggest its leaders leave Gaza.
The initially intended Phase 1 of the ceasefire remains incomplete and has exacerbated mutual distrust. Scenes of emaciated captives paraded post-release, with coerced smiles and interactions with militants, shocked Israelis. Some hostages reported experiencing severe conditions during captivity. Last Thursday, Hamas displayed coffins, claiming they contained the bodies of Shiri Bibas and her two children, allegedly killed in an Israeli airstrike; however, Israel contended that a forensic inquiry showed the children were slain by their captors, and the third body was another individual.
A subsequent release confirmed the mother’s identity. Hamas produced footage of two remaining hostages voicing pleas for release—prompting Israel to postpone prisoner exchanges. Hamas accused Israel of ceasefire violations, claiming fatalities caused by encounters with soldiers or territory breaches. Additionally, it criticized Israel’s slow response in allowing temporary housing and rubble-clearing equipment, which eventually arrived, and alleged mistreatments of Palestinian prisoners before release.
Meanwhile, Israel’s launched significant military operations in the West Bank, displacing roughly 40,000 Palestinians per UN reports, attributing efforts towards negating militant threats, seen by Palestinians as extending Israeli control over occupied lands.
Mixed signals have emanated from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who initially praised the ceasefire, aided by Steve Witkoff’s efforts following lengthy negotiations with Biden’s administration, Egypt, and Qatar. Trump set a stringent deadline for Hamas to release hostages, issuing that failure would invoke severe repercussions—yet stated Israel’s discretion prevails, with the deadline easing by.
Trump further confounded matters by suggesting the relocation of Gaza’s approximately 2 million residents and proposing U.S. administration of the territory—recommendations applauded by Netanyahu but opposed widely among Palestinians and Arab nations, as well as human rights organizations citing potential international law violations. Trump reasserted this stance over a weekend Fox News interview, albeit not insisting on enactment.
