The initial stage of the ceasefire, which ended over a year of intense conflict between Israel and Hamas, is coming to a close on Saturday, but the future remains uncertain. Originally, both sides were to negotiate a follow-up phase in which Hamas would release all remaining hostages from its attack on October 7, 2023. In return, there would be an exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, such negotiations have not truly commenced, with only preliminary discussions taking their place amidst ongoing disputes.
During the first six-week phase, concluding on March 1, Hamas released 25 living hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees, alongside the bodies of four captives. An additional four were scheduled to be handed over, but it is unclear if this will occur as planned. Hamas still holds over 60 captives, around half of whom are feared dead. Meanwhile, Israel has postponed the release of approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners due to accusations that captives were mistreated, including being exhibited before crowds.
Israel seeks an extension of this first ceasefire phase to ensure the release of more captives, but Hamas insists on the release of the delayed prisoners before any further negotiations. The discussions surrounding the second phase promise to be even more challenging.
The upcoming stage presents a significant hurdle, potentially forcing Israel to choose between its two primary war aims: securing the safe return of hostages or dismantling Hamas. Despite being weakened, Hamas maintains authority with no opposition. It leverages its remaining hostages demanding a lasting ceasefire and Israel’s full withdrawal. A third stage would involve exchanging remains and initiating Gaza’s demanding reconstruction, projected to take years and billions of dollars.
Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff is set to return to the region, aiming to extend the first phase to allow time for second-phase negotiations. Nevertheless, Egypt, a central mediator, refuses to discuss extensions until discussions on phase two begin. An Egyptian official suggests that simply initiating phase two conversations would uphold the truce, maintaining a cessation in hostilities and aid influx to Gaza, though without new hostage releases.
Hamas had agreed to a brief extension for continuing talks, a stance changed following Israel’s delay in releasing prisoners. Egypt demands Israel’s withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor, a Gaza-adjacent border segment, before advancing to the next stage. The agreement schedules this withdrawal to start this weekend and finish in eight days.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains discreet about upcoming decisions. He is pressured by hardline coalition partners to resume military action against Hamas, but public pressure also mounts for recovering hostages following distressing images of freed captives. Witkoff indicates Netanyahu’s commitment to rescuing hostages, yet he opposes Hamas’s involvement in post-war Gaza governance, and the Western-supported Palestinian Authority isn’t considered for involvement. Nevertheless, Hamas expresses willingness to cede Gaza control to other Palestinian entities.
Though ready to transfer control, Hamas remains resistant to laying down arms unless Israel ceases its occupation of disputed territories, captured in the 1967 Mideast war. Hamas also dismissed Israel’s proposal for its leadership to go into exile.
The conclusion of phase one has intensified mutual distrust. Many Israelis were appalled by footage of emaciated captives coerced into various public displays. Upon returning, hostages recounted harsh detentions. Recently, Hamas exhibited coffins claiming victims of Israeli airstrikes, which Israel disputed, igniting further contention. This inflamed hostility appears to have delayed prisoner releases.
Hamas accuses Israel of ceasefire violations, including deadly operations against people near Israeli troops or in unauthorized areas. Additionally, there’s frustration over delayed humanitarian aid and Palestinian prisoner mistreatment allegations. Israel has intensified operations in the West Bank, displacing thousands, aiming to curb potential threats. Meanwhile, Palestinians view this as strengthening Israel’s long-lasting control.
In the U.S., mixed messages surround involvement in the conflict resolution. Although credited for facilitating the ceasefire, President Donald Trump has sent conflicting signals. Despite previously setting a firm deadline on hostage releases, those ultimatums lapsed. Further confusion arose from suggesting Palestinian relocation and U.S. development control over Gaza, an idea rebuffed by Palestinians and criticized for potentially breaching international laws. Nevertheless, Trump downplays coercion, indicating a preference over an imposition.
