German opposition leader Friedrich Merz and his conservative bloc secured a lackluster victory in Sunday’s national election, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) nearly doubled its support, marking the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II, according to projections.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his center-left Social Democrats (SPD), calling the result “bitter.” Projections from ARD and ZDF public television showed the SPD finishing in third place with its worst postwar result in a national election.
Uncertain Path to Coalition for Merz
It remains unclear how easily Merz will be able to form a coalition government. The election was held seven months earlier than scheduled after Scholz’s unpopular coalition collapsed in November, three years into its term, due to internal conflicts. Public discontent was high, and voter enthusiasm for any candidate was low.
Projections based on exit polls and partial vote counts showed Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), securing just under 29% of the vote. AfD surged to approximately 20%, nearly double its result from 2021.
Support for Scholz’s SPD dropped to just over 16%, significantly lower than in the last election. The Greens, who were part of the outgoing coalition, received between 12-13%.
Among the smaller parties, the left-wing Die Linke appeared set to enter parliament with up to 9% of the vote. Two other parties, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, hovered around the 5% threshold needed to secure seats.
Whether Merz will need one or two coalition partners depends on how many parties ultimately make it into parliament.
AfD Pushes for Coalition as Merz Rejects Alliance
“I am aware of the responsibility,” Merz said. “I also recognize the magnitude of the task ahead of us. I approach it with the utmost respect, knowing that it will not be easy.”
“The world is not waiting for us or for long-drawn-out coalition negotiations,” he told his supporters. “We must quickly become capable of governing again.”
AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, celebrated the party’s historic gains. “We have become the second-strongest force,” she declared.
She expressed openness to coalition talks with Merz’s conservatives, stating, “Without us, there can be no real policy change in Germany.” However, Merz has repeatedly ruled out any cooperation with AfD, as have other mainstream parties.
Scholz’s SPD Suffers Heavy Losses
SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch acknowledged the crushing defeat, saying, “This election wasn’t lost in the last eight weeks.” The results reflect growing dissatisfaction with Scholz’s three-year government, which struggled with internal disputes and declining public confidence.
Election Driven by Economic Concerns and Migration
The campaign was dominated by concerns over Germany’s prolonged economic stagnation and increasing pressure to curb migration. The election took place amid uncertainty about the future of Ukraine and Germany’s role in NATO, as well as shifting alliances under the Trump administration in the U.S.
Germany, the most populous country in the European Union and a key NATO member, has been the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the U.S. The new government will play a crucial role in shaping Europe’s response to economic and geopolitical challenges, including Trump’s confrontational trade policies.
More than 59 million Germans were eligible to vote in the election, determining the makeup of the 630-seat Bundestag, which meets under the iconic glass dome of Berlin’s Reichstag building.
