Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is heading to Washington for a crucial three-day visit. His goal? To build a strong relationship with Donald Trump, similar to the one Trump shared with former PM Shinzo Abe.
The Abe-Trump bond: A model for Ishiba?
In 2016, just months after Trump’s election win, Abe was the first foreign leader to meet him. At Trump Tower, Abe presented Trump with a gold-plated golf club. It was a bold move to kick off US-Japan relations under a new administration. Abe’s charm offensive was key. Trump had hinted at removing US troops from Japan unless Japan paid more for the alliance. But Abe’s approach worked, and the US stayed in Japan.
Fast forward to 2017. Trump’s trip to Asia was highlighted by a round of golf with Abe. They bonded over the game, hamburgers, and a shared sense of camaraderie. As the years went on, Abe supported Trump in ways that few leaders did. The US-Japan security pact remained strong, and troops stayed in Japan.
Ishiba’s challenge: Rebuilding the relationship
Now, Ishiba faces a tough challenge. Can he recreate the same connection with Trump? He’s no golfer like Abe, but he has a job to do. Ishiba wants Trump’s guarantees that the US will defend Japan, especially in potential conflicts with China over the Senkaku Islands and ongoing tensions with North Korea.
The stakes are high. Ishiba must ensure Japan’s security while navigating Trump’s unpredictable approach. The US also wants to see action from Japan, particularly on defense spending. Ishiba is already planning to boost Japan’s defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2027. This could mean buying US-made military equipment.
Strengthening economic ties
But it’s not all about defense. Ishiba will remind Trump of Japan’s economic power. For five years, Japan has been the top foreign investor in the US. Japanese companies also provide jobs for many Americans. Ishiba might even discuss a $44 billion gas pipeline project in Alaska as part of new investments.
Experts weigh in: The importance of Ishiba’s visit
Experts are closely watching the trip. “Japan’s foreign policy has always been ‘America First,’” said Nicholas Szechenyi, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If Ishiba can express that clearly, it could strengthen the US-Japan alliance and shift power in the Asia-Pacific region in favor of the US.”
Domestic risks for Ishiba
But there’s more at stake. Ishiba’s visit carries risks for his domestic standing. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is divided and mired in scandals. How he handles this high-profile meeting with Trump will be closely scrutinized. If he comes across as too eager to please, he could face backlash in Japan.
Ishiba also has to deal with tough questions on Trump’s controversial policies. Will he address Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization and the Paris climate accord? How will he handle Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could affect Japan too?
The media’s watchful eye
The Japanese media will be paying close attention to the body language between the two leaders. Will Trump show respect? Will he use Ishiba’s first name? The outcome of this meeting could have major implications for Ishiba’s future.
A risky move for Ishiba
It’s a risky move for Ishiba. If he doesn’t secure key assurances from Trump, or if the two fail to connect, he might face intense pressure from his party. Rivals could challenge his leadership, and the LDP’s unity could be further fractured.
Despite these risks, Ishiba is determined. “We have a lot of topics to discuss,” he said earlier this week. “I hope to set priorities and get results in the limited time we have.” His meeting with Trump will be one of the most significant moments of his tenure. It could shape Japan’s foreign policy for years to come.
