Extreme heat is anticipated to result in the loss of up to 2.3 million lives across Europe by the century’s end if nations fail to effectively reduce carbon emissions and make necessary adjustments to rising temperatures, according to a recent analysis.
Currently, deaths attributed to cold weather significantly surpass those due to heat across Europe. However, a research team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine examined climate modeling across various scenarios and analyzed mortality rates in 854 cities. Their findings indicate that while fatalities from cold temperatures gradually decrease, incidences of death from heat drastically increase.
Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and limited adaptations, such as the introduction of air conditioning and cooling centres, regions such as Italy, southern Spain, and Greece are likely to experience a dramatic rise in heat-related deaths linked to climate change. Conversely, areas in Scandinavia and the United Kingdom are predicted to see a decline in temperature-related fatalities, largely due to milder winter conditions, as reported in a recent edition of the journal Nature Medicine.
In the most favorable scenarios where carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are significantly reduced and there are substantial advancements in adaptation measures, temperature-related deaths would still rise as global warming progresses. Pierre Masselot, the study’s lead author and an environmental epidemiologist, pointed out that the reduction in cold weather fatalities is happening in less populated areas compared to the southern regions where heat poses a more serious threat.
The Mediterranean region is highlighted as a “climate hotspot,” warming at a rate faster than many other parts of the globe. Malta is specifically noted as being significantly impacted.
The study estimates that Malta may see an increase of 269 temperature-related deaths per 100,000 residents by the century’s end, while Ireland’s death rate could decrease by 15 per 100,000. Overall, wealthier western European countries are expected to fare better compared to their eastern counterparts, according to Masselot.
Recent years have witnessed deadly heat waves causing considerable fatalities in Europe, with the heat wave of 2003 being particularly severe, claiming approximately 70,000 lives.
In major Mediterranean cities, the projection for temperature-related fatalities is alarming. For instance, under the worst-case scenario analyzed, Barcelona could face nearly 250,000 additional heat-related deaths, while both Rome and Naples could approach 150,000. In a scenario where carbon emissions slightly worsen from current trends without further adaptation, the study found that climate change could lead to over 5.8 million excess heat-related deaths, albeit with around 3.5 million fewer deaths from cold conditions. The research team has developed an interactive website that allows users to explore various cities and contributing factors.
Notably, Masselot’s research was distinguished by its ability to separate the impacts of climate change from those of an aging population, enhancing its utility, as highlighted by external experts in public health and climate science.
Dr. Courtney Howard, a Canadian emergency room physician and vice chair of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, emphasized that the findings align closely with expectations regarding soaring summer temperatures in cities like Rome—often reaching unsafe levels above 40 degrees Celsius (104 to 122 degrees Fahrenheit)—posing serious risks especially for older people lacking air conditioning.
Addressing the challenges posed by Europe’s aging housing infrastructure and limited air conditioning availability necessitates a comprehensive array of adaptations, including the installation of central air systems, increased green spaces, and the establishment of cooling centers, according to Masselot. He mentioned that North America is less likely to face such pronounced environmental trends.
Additionally, Europe’s aging population makes its communities more susceptible to extreme weather impacts, as pointed out by Masselot.
