DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — In a recent development, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have indicated a new strategy regarding their maritime operations in the Red Sea. They have stated that their assaults will be focused solely on vessels linked to Israel, coming at a time when a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip has entered its second day. This declaration, conveyed through an email to shipping companies on Sunday, is unlikely to persuade global businesses to reassess their use of this vital shipping route, essential for trade and energy supplies between Asia and Europe. The ongoing harassment has drastically reduced maritime traffic, adversely affecting Egypt, which oversees the Suez Canal connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.
Jakob P. Larsen, head of maritime security for BIMCO, the largest international shipowners’ association, commented on the situation. He described the ceasefire as tenuous and expressed concerns that even slight violations of the agreement could trigger renewed hostilities, which may lead the Houthis to broaden their threats to international shipping.
Alongside this announcement, the Houthis are expected to release a military statement regarding their recent decisions. They have expressed through their Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center that they will cease targeting other ships that have previously been under threat since November 2023. However, they specified that restrictions on Israeli vessels will only be fully lifted following the complete adherence to all aspects of the ceasefire.
Nonetheless, the communication leaves open the possibility of resuming attacks on the U.S. and U.K., who have been actively conducting airstrikes against the Houthi forces due to their naval assaults. They warned that any act of aggression would result in the reinstatement of sanctions against the implicated nation, assuring that any such measures would be promptly communicated.
Since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October 2023, which followed a surprise Hamas attack on Israel that resulted in significant casualties, the Houthi rebels have been involved in aggressive actions against over 100 merchant ships using missiles and drones. These assaults have unfortunately resulted in the loss of four sailors’ lives, while several other missile and drone attacks have been intercepted by U.S. and European coalitions patrolling the Red Sea.
The Houthis have maintained that their military objectives target Israeli, U.S., and U.K. ships to urge a halt to Israel’s operations against Hamas in Gaza. However, evidence suggests that many targeted vessels have had little to no association with the ongoing conflict, including some directed toward Iran. Recently, the frequency of Houthi attacks has diminished, particularly concerning vessels at sea, which may be attributed to the ongoing U.S. airstrike campaign. Reports indicate that U.S. and allied forces have conducted over 260 strikes against Houthi positions.
Despite the decrease in maritime attacks, the Houthis have persisted in launching drones and missiles aimed at Israel, which has reiterated its stance on continuing to target Houthi leaders. With the inauguration of President Donald Trump looming, there is speculation regarding a potential shift in U.S. policy toward the Houthis. Trump’s administration might reinstate the foreign terrorist organization classification that had been removed by President Joe Biden, which could potentially reignite hostilities.
Larsen emphasized the uncertainty this creates, noting that it is difficult to predict how the incoming administration will engage with the conflict involving the Houthis and whether punitive actions against them will be taken into consideration.
In summary, the geopolitical situation in the Red Sea appears to remain complex and precarious, as the Houthis attempt to navigate their military strategy amidst the turbulent backdrop of ongoing regional conflicts and shifting international politics.
