Donald Trump has several legal strategies up his sleeve to try to avoid state prison, but his best hope for staying free lies with the results of the upcoming presidential election, writes CNN.
The former president has successfully delayed his sentencing twice now, pushing it past Election Day, on 34 felony counts related to falsifying business records in connection with hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. While Trump’s legal team is preparing for further battles, no strategy will be as decisive as the voters’ choice at the polls.
“There’s a 50/50 chance he’ll be sentenced in November,” says Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former senior official at the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and current CNN legal analyst. “If he loses, I think he gets sentenced to prison. If he wins, this likely won’t proceed.”
Election Victory as a “Get Out of Jail Free Card”
A victory on Election Day could serve as Trump’s “get out of jail free card,” granting him significant leverage over his legal challenges. For years, his legal strategy has centered on delaying proceedings, a tactic that has mostly worked to his advantage. Facing four criminal indictments by late 2023, only one case has proceeded to trial before the election.
Trump’s legal team is already exploring options to delay sentencing, scheduled for November 26, regardless of the election outcome. The final decision on these tactics will create an unprecedented moment in U.S. history—deciding if, and when, a former president serves time.
“This situation is unparalleled in American history,” remarked retired New York State Judge Jill Konviser. “No legal precedent exists for something like this.”
Prosecutors’ Position After the Election
So far, prosecutors haven’t opposed Trump’s previous requests to delay sentencing until after the election. Judge Juan Merchan granted a postponement until late November, but it’s unclear how prosecutors will respond once the votes are counted.
Presidential Immunity and Legal Appeals
On November 12, one week after Election Day, Judge Merchan is expected to rule on Trump’s motion to dismiss his conviction based on a recent Supreme Court decision regarding presidential immunity, which restricts the evidence that can be presented to a jury. If the judge sides with Trump, the charges would be dropped, avoiding any sentencing.
If the immunity claim fails, Trump’s attorneys plan to request another delay to pursue an appeal. Should that be denied, they are prepared to escalate the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, seeking to pause sentencing until all appeals are resolved—a process that could stretch over several months.
Attempts to Move the Case to Federal Court
Trump is also trying to move the hush-money case from state to federal court, hoping for a more favorable outcome. His first attempt in 2023 was denied by District Judge Alvin Hellerstein, and a second attempt this year was also turned down. Judge Hellerstein ruled that the hush-money payments were private acts outside the realm of official executive duties, stating, “Nothing in the Supreme Court’s opinion changes my previous conclusion.”
As Trump’s legal team explores all avenues, the ultimate fate of his freedom hangs on the election, making November’s outcome critical for both his political and personal future.
