WASHINGTON — One of the most significant indicators of voting behavior is education level. Individuals with a college education are generally more inclined to support Democrats, while those without degrees tend to favor Republicans. This trend has become evident in various electoral contexts, prompting an exploration of its implications in Centre County, Pennsylvania. With Pennsylvania State University at its core, this region represents a notable Democratic stronghold amidst surrounding Republican territory.
In recent years, Centre County has been experiencing a demographic shift, drawing an increasing number of individuals with higher education degrees. This transformation is contributing to a political landscape where small towns previously inclined to Republican support are transitioning towards a more balanced or even Democratic stance. Although this election year is fraught with uncertainty, these evolving dynamics have the potential to bolster Kamala Harris’s support against Donald Trump in less urbanized areas. Here is what we’ve discovered in Centre County.
The Shift in a Swing County
Centre County is home to about 160,000 residents and has traditionally been recognized as a swing area electorally. However, this trend appears to be shifting as Democratic presidential contenders have consistently secured victories in recent elections, and the Democratic Party retains leadership of the county board of commissioners.
This political evolution is mirrored in educational attainment metrics. A decade ago, only 39.4% of residents held a four-year degree or higher, but that figure rose to 47.6% last year. Local leaders are advocating for an economic diversification strategy that extends beyond the influence of Penn State, highlighting initiatives such as an ironman triathlon and enhancement of healthcare facilities.
A Return to Roots
Mark Higgins, chair of the Centre County Board of Commissioners, attributes the region’s growth to the phenomenon known as “boomeranging.” This term describes individuals who have lived or studied in the county returning to settle down and start families. The affordable cost of living is a major factor driving these moves, with residents relocating from larger cities to State College for its lower expenses and others migrating from State College to adjacent towns seeking even better financial prospects. Consequently, the Democratic-leaning area is expanding throughout the county.
“As you observe the area, you can see the university community and its economy growing,” commented Ezra Nanes, the Democratic mayor of State College. “This growth influences all corners of the county.”
Transformation in Small Towns
Surrounding Penn State are several small towns long viewed as conservative. Nonetheless, this perception is gradually changing. For instance, voters in Bellefonte, a town with approximately 6,000 residents, supported Trump in 2016 but shifted their allegiance to Biden in 2020. Once struggling, Bellefonte has seen renewed investment and an influx of newcomers that have infused the community with more liberal political ideals.
However, not every small town has experienced this kind of revitalization. Philipsburg, with a population of under 3,000, has yet to enjoy similar transformation. The decline in coal mining has led to job losses, contributing to the community’s continued support for Trump over Biden in the 2020 election. “It’s a charming town, but it certainly needs assistance,” remarked Brittney Tekely, 31, a local barber shop owner.
Strategies for Securing Votes
Democrats are optimistic about amplifying their influence in Centre County, targeting the large left-leaning student demographic known for being under-engaged in elections. Their strategy includes extensive canvassing efforts aiming to significantly increase voter turnout compared to previous elections. “Centre County could yield thousands more votes than in 2020 or 2016,” asserted Abbey Carr, the executive director of the county’s Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Republicans are also making efforts to connect with the college population, hosting events tailored to energizing conservative students. Kush Desai, a spokesman for the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania, indicated they’re focusing on outreach during college football tailgates and aiming to attract votes from young men disillusioned by progressive policies. “Many individuals are starting to engage with us and reconsider their stance,” he shared.
