Donald Trump Surging in Betting Markets
Donald Trump is experiencing a surge in betting markets, particularly in the billions spent on international betting platforms by Americans, as betting on elections is illegal in the United States. Despite this restriction, millions of Americans continue to place bets, with a growing number wagering on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.
By Thursday evening, Trump’s chances of victory had climbed to 61% on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based trading platform, compared to just 39% for Vice President Kamala Harris. This marks a significant improvement for Trump, who led for the first time last week with 55% to Harris’ 45%. What’s more surprising is that Polymarket bettors now predict Trump will win all seven key battleground states.
Trump’s Odds in Battleground States
According to Polymarket, Trump’s chances of winning individual states are also on the rise. In Arizona, he holds a 68% chance of victory, followed by 65% in Georgia, and 59% in Pennsylvania, one of the most hotly contested states. North Carolina shows a 63% likelihood for Trump, with Michigan and Wisconsin leaning in his favor at 56% and 55%, respectively.
Nevada remains the closest race, but even there, Trump has a slight edge, with a 51% to 49% lead over Harris.
Overall, Trump enjoys a 22.5% advantage over Harris on Polymarket. On Betfair Exchange, the second-largest betting platform for Americans overseas, Trump holds a 17-point lead.
Rising Odds Linked to Pennsylvania Polls
Trump’s improving odds are closely tied to his rising poll numbers in Pennsylvania, a state that carries 19 critical electoral votes. Previously, Harris had a narrow lead there, but a win in Pennsylvania would be crucial for her path to 270 electoral votes.
With just a few weeks left before Election Day, Trump’s current standing in betting markets is stronger than during his previous campaigns in 2016 and 2020. One possible reason is the familiarity voters have with the candidates this time around. In 2016, both voters and betting markets knew relatively little about Trump compared to Hillary Clinton. Now, the situation is reversed.
Experts Weigh In on the Betting Markets
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University who studies betting markets, highlighted the contrast in public perception. “Harris is still somewhat unknown, even as vice president,” Crane said. “But Trump is fully exposed. It’s hard to imagine anything new about him that could shift the race.” Whether Harris’ relative anonymity works in her favor remains uncertain.
Polls suggest that over 100 electoral votes in nine states are still up for grabs. Although Trump’s odds have surged, they are still below the 70% threshold he reached during the 2020 Republican National Convention on platforms like Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
Historical Context for Betting Markets
Betting markets have not always been accurate in predicting election outcomes. In 2016, for example, Betfair gave Hillary Clinton an 81% chance of winning, only for Trump to pull off an upset victory. Historically, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866—once in 2016 and once in 1948, when Harry Truman defied 8-to-1 odds to defeat Thomas Dewey.
As Election Day approaches, the betting markets will continue to shift, but Trump’s current surge reflects increasing confidence among bettors that he may once again win the White House.
Trump’s Election Odds Spike On Polymarket As Musk Touts Betting Site
Odds on a prominent presidential election betting platform shifted significantly in former President Donald Trump’s favor on Monday, a development that garnered excitement from Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. However, the odds on other platforms offering election wagers showed far less drastic movement.
Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris surged on Monday on Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform that allows users to place unconventional bets on events like the presidential election. By shortly after 6 p.m. EDT, Polymarket gave Trump a 53.3% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 46.1%. This marked an increase from earlier that day, when Trump held a narrower 50.9% to 48.2% edge at 9:30 a.m.
These odds represent Trump’s highest level on Polymarket since early August, shortly after Harris officially assumed the Democratic nomination following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
