Recent polling in Pennsylvania reveals a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. However, betting markets tell a different story, suggesting that if trends hold, Trump could secure Pennsylvania—and potentially the presidency. According to Polymarket, a crypto-based trading platform, the odds shifted after the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, with an influx of bets boosting Trump’s chances of winning Pennsylvania.
As of Thursday morning, for the first time since late July, Trump also had narrow odds of winning Wisconsin and Michigan, further fueling his campaign. By Tuesday at 8 a.m. ET, Polymarket showed a 56.5% probability of Trump winning the election, the highest since July 30. It’s important to note that betting on presidential elections is not legal in the U.S.
If you’re planning to vote for Trump or Harris, be mindful of upcoming voter registration deadlines in some states.
Odds are improving after rising polls in Pennsylvania
Trump’s odds of winning have improved alongside his rising chances in Pennsylvania. Bettors previously gave Harris a slim lead in the state, which carries 19 electoral votes. Should she win Pennsylvania and the states where she is favored, Harris would surpass the crucial 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
With nearly three weeks until Election Day, Trump’s current odds are stronger than during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. According to Betfair Exchange, Trump had just a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton on Election Day 2016.
One factor in this election cycle is the familiarity of voters with the candidates. In 2016, voters and betting markets knew less about Trump than Clinton. This time, it may be the reverse. Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University who analyzes betting markets, commented on the dynamic. “Harris is relatively unknown, despite being vice president. She’s rarely in the media,” Crane said. In contrast, “Trump is completely exposed. It’s hard to imagine anything new surfacing about him.” Whether this benefits or harms Harris remains to be seen.
Polls indicate that more than 100 electoral votes across nine states are still up for grabs. Although Trump’s betting odds have recently surged, they remain far from his position during the 2020 Republican National Convention when his probability of winning exceeded 70% on platforms like Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
Betting markets famously missed Trump’s victory in 2016, with Betfair odds giving Hillary Clinton an 81% chance of winning. Historically, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866—once in 2016 and once in 1948, when Harry Truman defied 8-to-1 odds to defeat Thomas Dewey.
