In November, after voters decide whether to return Donald J. Trump to the White House, a judge could send him to jail for his criminal trial. Despite Trump’s political status, the judge has grounds to do so, based on an examination of similar cases by The New York Times.
Trump’s unruly behavior during the New York trial and his felony conviction for falsifying business records make him a candidate for jail time. In Manhattan, over a third of such convictions resulted in jail, and statewide, the number rises to 42%.
If Trump wins the White House, jail time seems unlikely
If Trump wins the presidency, he’ll likely avoid incarceration due to federal protections for sitting presidents. However, if he loses, his lawyers may push for home confinement, citing security concerns. As a first-time offender, Trump may seek probation instead of jail, leveraging his age and nonviolent crime status.
Judge Merchan, who oversaw Trump’s trial, has given jail sentences to other white-collar criminals and may consider Trump’s contemptuous courtroom behavior when deciding his fate. Legal experts suggest the judge could impose a short jail sentence or probation, depending on what he believes will deter future crimes.
