The far-right Alternative for Germany, AfD, has appeared to become the strongest party in a state election in eastern Germany for the first time, according to exit polls. This brings a significant shift in the political landscape in the country’s east. At the same time, a new party founded by a prominent leftist figure has also shown immediate impact in the elections. The mainstream conservative parties, part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition, are expected to have weak results in the polls.
Exit polls from public television channels ARD and ZDF suggest AfD’s support to be between 30.5% and 33.5% in Thuringia and around 31.5% in Saxony. Meanwhile, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the main opposition party at the national level, stands at 24.5% in Thuringia and between 31.5% and 32% in Saxony. Despite its electoral successes, it is unlikely that AfD will find any willing coalition partners, making the formation of new state governments challenging.
The national co-leader of AfD, Alice Weidel, has emphasized the importance of these state elections as a stepping stone for the national parliamentary election next year. AfD, particularly strong in the east, aims to govern at the state level as well. The party’s significant showing in the polls could complicate the process of forming new state governments due to its extreme right-wing stance and controversial leaders within its ranks.
On the other hand, Germany’s main opposition party, the CDU, is striving to maintain its position against AfD in Saxony and Thuringia. The political landscape in Thuringia is complex, with the Left Party struggling to retain significance nationally. The rise of new political entities, such as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), adds further complexity to coalition possibilities in the region.
Both AfD and BSW have garnered support by tapping into discontent with the current national government, marked by internal conflicts. The parties’ popularity in the economically disadvantaged east reflects anti-immigration sentiments prevalent in the region. The outcome of recent events, such as a fatal knife attack and the government’s response, may influence voter behavior in the elections.
Beyond domestic issues, Germany’s stance on international matters, like the conflict in Ukraine and military deployments, is also shaping the political discourse. AfD and BSW oppose Germany’s arms supply to Ukraine and the planned deployment of long-range missiles, signaling diverging views on foreign policy. The results of these state elections are poised to have implications not only at the regional level but also for the upcoming national election.
