Trump’s 2-Point Lead in National Poll
A recent Fox News poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 48% in a national survey, marking a shift from last month when Harris held a slight advantage. The poll highlights key differences in support, with Trump leading in areas he dominated in 2020, while Harris shows strength in seven crucial battleground states.
Strength in Key Demographics
Trump has gained momentum among White voters, increasing his lead from 4 points to 10. He also performs strongly among older voters and those with college degrees, while Harris’s support has declined in key demographics, including Black voters and college graduates. The poll indicates a tight race, with shifts among these groups being potentially decisive.
Electoral College Scenario
While Trump leads in the popular vote, Harris could still win the Electoral College, echoing previous elections where the popular vote and Electoral College results diverged. Trump has improved on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, areas where voters favor him over Harris. However, Harris maintains an advantage on topics like abortion, climate change, and health care.
The Role of Independents and New Voters
Harris has retained her lead among independents and new voters, which helps keep the race competitive. Both candidates receive overwhelming support from their respective parties, but Trump benefits from more voters identifying as Republican.
