After Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the Iowa caucuses, attention now turns to New Hampshire, where voters are poised to shape the trajectory of the Republican nominating contest.
The former president maintains a dominant position within the party, putting pressure on former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to enhance their performance after lackluster results in Iowa.
Scheduled to appear in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley are all vying for support in the state’s upcoming primary. However, Trump’s detour to a civil defamation trial in New York adds a unique dynamic to the unfolding events.
Haley, embracing New Hampshire’s reputation for independence, launched a statewide TV ad targeting both Trump and President Joe Biden, portraying them as the “two most disliked politicians in America.” In South Carolina, DeSantis criticized Haley’s attempt to frame the campaign as a battle against Trump, highlighting his own conservative record.
While Haley aimed to attract both moderates and anti-Trump conservatives, DeSantis, aligning more with Trump’s ideology, sought support from Iowa conservatives. In New Hampshire, only registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters can participate in the GOP primary, excluding Democrats.
Acknowledging Trump’s advantage as a de facto incumbent, DeSantis downplayed his performance in Iowa, emphasizing that “half the people wanted someone else.” Trump secured 51% of the votes in Iowa, establishing a strong position.
Haley challenged Trump to join her on the debate stage in New Hampshire, emphasizing that he “has nowhere left to hide.” Trump had previously expressed openness to primary debates only if a genuine competitor emerged, leaving the door open for a showdown with Haley.
The post-Iowa strategies of Haley and DeSantis reflect the diverse support they garnered. Haley attracted anti-Trump Republicans and Biden supporters in Iowa, with less than half of her backers voting for Trump in 2020. DeSantis performed well among those dissatisfied with Trump but willing to support him in the general election.
As New Hampshire’s historically independent electorate comes into play, Trump’s weakness in the Iowa suburbs might offer an opening for DeSantis and Haley. While Trump struggled in Iowa’s educated and less evangelical suburbs, New Hampshire’s Republican electorate mirrors this demographic. However, Trump still slightly outpaced both DeSantis and Haley in the Iowa suburbs, according to AP VoteCast. The upcoming primary will test whether these candidates can sway anti-Trump voters or convert those still sympathetic to the former president.
