WASHINGTON — A recent study highlights that U.S. employers could encounter a direct financial impact of $82.3 billion due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. This burden might be countered through increased prices, downsizing, recruitment suspensions, or diminished profits.
The JPMorganChase Institute’s analysis assesses the tariffs’ immediate expenses for businesses with annual revenues ranging from $10 million to $1 billion, representing about one-third of the private-sector U.S. workforce. These businesses, particularly those in retail and wholesale, heavily rely on imports from China, India, and Thailand, making them susceptible to the newly imposed taxes.
The study challenges Trump’s assertions that foreign producers would absorb these costs. Although the tariffs have not significantly heightened inflation, major players like Amazon, Costco, Walmart, and Williams-Sonoma managed by pre-emptively stockpiling goods before tariffs were fully implemented.
This analysis emerges as Trump’s July 9 deadline looms for deciding tariff rates on goods from numerous countries. Initially, most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff during a 90-day negotiation period. Countries like China, Mexico, and Canada were assigned higher rates, with additional 50% tariffs applied to steel and aluminum.
Had the initial April tariffs been unchanged, JPMorganChase Institute estimates the affected companies would have faced costs totaling $187.6 billion. Currently, the $82.3 billion is estimated to translate to $2,080 per employee or 3.1% of the average annual payroll.
Trump, when questioned about trade discussions, remarked, “Everything’s going well.” The president has hinted at setting specific tariff rates amid challenges in negotiating with multiple nations. As the negotiation period ends, only the UK has formalized a trade framework with the U.S., while Vietnam recently struck a deal and India is purportedly nearing one.
According to Trump, Vietnam will face a 20% tariff on all goods sent to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped from China. Conversely, Vietnam has granted the U.S. market access for tariff-free sales.
Evidence suggests tariff-related inflation may rise. Goldman Sachs anticipates businesses may pass 60% of tariff costs to consumers. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s survey indicates companies could shift about half of their costs onto consumers under certain tariff conditions, without severely impacting demand.
The JPMorganChase Institute posits that domestic manufacturers might benefit by enhancing their supplier roles. However, wholesalers and retailers, operating on slim profit margins, might transfer tariff costs to customers.
The tariff situation remains fluid. Although Trump resumed talks with Canada after they dropped their digital services tax, he recently threatened Japan with more tariffs unless they increase their rice purchases from the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends” about the progress made in trade talks, impressing officials at the U.S. Trade Representative Office and other agencies.
The next rounds of trade discussions are scheduled as the Trump administration focuses on prioritizing a tax cuts package recently passed in the Senate. Trump has set a deadline for the package’s approval, hoping to counterbalance its costs with tariff revenues.