BANGKOK โ The decision of the Constitutional Court to suspend Thailandโs Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has sparked debate over whether the Shinawatra familyโs political revival will conclude in defeat once more.
Paetongtarn represents the third member of her family to assume the role of Prime Minister, following her father Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecom magnate and influential political figure in Thailand, and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra, the first female Prime Minister of the nation. Thaksin faced a military coup in 2006, while Yingluck was deposed by a court ruling in 2014.
Despite his removal from power, Thaksin retained significant support among voters, who appreciated his governance for prioritizing their interests. During her 2022 election campaign, Paetongtarn openly embraced her family ties while asserting her independence, stating, โItโs not the shadow of my dad. I am my dadโs daughter, always and forever, but I have my own decisions.โ She expressed her ambition to foster opportunities, enhance the quality of life, and propel the country forward.
However, Paetongtarnโs political journey was interrupted when the court suspended her pending an ethics investigation. This followed a controversial leaked phone call with Hun Sen, Cambodiaโs senior leader, which raised concerns about its negative impact on Thailandโs interests and image.
Critics have taken aim at Paetongtarnโs administration, pointing out that, despite the legalization of marriage equality, such progress was initiated by her predecessor. The governmentโs move to impose tighter controls on cannabis, following backlash against decriminalization, was deemed rushed and confusing. Furthermore, critics highlighted the unsatisfactory implementation of various Pheu Thai party policies, including inconsistent minimum wage increases, fluctuating cash handout programs, and the controversial and stagnant proposal to legalize casinos. The lack of progress on tariff negotiations with the United States was also criticized.
Yet, it is the leaked call amidst border tensions with Cambodia that has been the most significant misstep. Paetongtarn faced backlash over comments regarding a notable Thai army commander and her perceived appeasement of Hun Sen. She apologized but denied harming the nation, resisting pressure to resign or dissolve Parliament, a move her critics viewed as an attempt by the Pheu Thai party to retain power.
Napon Jatusripitak, a political science expert, suggested that Paetongtarnโs response seemed disconnected from reality, exposing her leadership deficiencies and fueling allegations of prioritizing family interests over national welfare.
Paetongtarnโs father, Thaksin, is believed to wield considerable influence over the Pheu Thai party, now helmed by Paetongtarn. Thaksinโs backed parties have frequently emerged victorious in elections, only to be removed from office by legal challenges and protests organized by his staunch adversaries.
In 2023, Thaksinโs perceived compromise with former conservative opponents, which seemingly served his interests by facilitating his return from exile and enabling the formation of the new government, alienated many of his previous supporters. The deal sidelined the progressive Move Forward Party, which finished first in national elections but was viewed as a more significant threat by the conservative establishment.
Given the current crisis, the Shinawatra familyโs influence might face significant setbacks. โIn light of the recent controversy, the Shinawatra spell has been broken,โ remarked Napon. โIt would be an understatement to say that the Shinawatra name no longer guarantees electoral success.โ
Challenges persist, with Yingluck still in exile, facing possible imprisonment upon returning to Thailand due to lingering legal issues, considered by some to be politically motivated. Thaksin, too, continues to grapple with legal challenges.
Thailandโs royalist establishment has consistently been wary of Thaksinโs populist policies, which they felt threatened traditional power structures and the monarchyโs central role in Thai identity.
Paetongtarn now faces renewed protests from the same conservative, pro-royalist factions that formerly opposed her father.
โHistory seems to be repeating itself in a way,โ Napon observed. โThailand seems trapped in a depressingly familiar cycle where Shinawatra-led governments come to power, only to face mounting pressure from traditional power centers, street protests, and extraparliamentary interventions that ultimately force them from office.โ
At 38 years old, Paetongtarn is the youngest of Thaksinโs three children. Before entering the political arena in 2021 as the head of an advisory committee for the Pheu Thai party, she held an executive role in a family-run hotel business.
She has two children with her spouse, Pitaka Suksawat, a former commercial pilot now involved in one of the Shinawatrasโ real estate ventures.