Unanswered Questions on Israel-Iran Peace Deal

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The recent truce between Israel and Iran, facilitated by the United States, has now been in effect for a week, bringing an end to a tumultuous 12-day conflict which spurred global concerns. This delicate peace was achieved after the U.S. took decisive military action by deploying massive “bunker-busting” bombs on three significant Iranian nuclear sites. While the truce is currently being maintained, numerous uncertainties continue to surround the situation.

    One of the major unknowns is the extent to which Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been hindered by these strikes. Although U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the targeted sites were completely “obliterated,” the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency provided a more measured assessment, indicating that while substantial damage was inflicted, the facilities were not entirely destroyed. Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, added that while significant destruction was evident, some parts remained intact, which could potentially allow Iran to resume nuclear activities if it chooses to do so. The full extent of the damage is still pending Iran’s approval for international inspections.

    In the wake of the ceasefire, potential future relations between the U.S. and Iran remain nebulous. Trump hinted at easing U.S. sanctions on Iran, suggesting the possibility of Iran emerging as a robust trading nation, provided it steps back from its nuclear pursuits. However, optimistic dialogues quickly soured. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the situation as having dealt a “slap to America’s face,” prompting Trump to retract immediate plans for sanction relief. Discussions regarding the resumption of negotiations are reportedly underway, but no firm agreements have been established. The possibility of Iran engaging in talks remains uncertain, particularly if such discussions require Iran to completely abandon all nuclear enrichment, even for civilian use.

    The role of Ayatollah Khamenei in navigating these geopolitical developments continues to be a subject of speculation. Although he has appeared less frequently due to security risks, there is little doubt over his authoritative control over Iran’s military and governmental affairs. Khamenei has played a pivotal role in shaping Iran’s leadership structure, bolstering the influence of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard both within military and internal political spheres.

    Despite the current lull, threats from Iran persist, particularly in the rapidly evolving realm of cyberwarfare. Tehran-linked hackers have initiated cyber attacks against U.S. banks, defense contractors, and various industries, though they have yet to cause severe disruptions. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security recently issued warnings about increased Iranian cyber threats, advising vigilance among operators of critical infrastructure such as water systems and power plants.

    The overall stability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains precarious. In immediate diplomatic engagements following the U.S. strikes, Trump urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to anticipate further American military interventions. Netanyahu conceded to the ceasefire but signaled readiness for future strikes should Iran attempt to revive its nuclear endeavors. The absence of a concrete agreement from Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program leaves an air of uncertainty, though Trump expressed confidence that Iran presently lacks the incentive to rejuvenate its nuclear capabilities.

    Given these developments, Trump’s ability to influence Netanyahu concerning the ongoing Gaza conflict is uncertain. Although he campaigned on promises to swiftly resolve both the Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Hamas tensions, little progress has been made. In recent communications with Netanyahu and other leaders, Trump emphasized the urgency of reaching a ceasefire agreement. Optimistically, Trump conveyed expectations of a ceasefire within a week during press remarks. Meanwhile, Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, is set to engage in further discussions in Washington, focusing on the Gaza situation, Iran, and other critical topics.