As the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to claim lives, misinformation is spreading on social media platforms. A widely circulated claim suggests that a Harvard University study uncovered that nearly 400,000 Palestinians have โdisappearedโ from Gaza since 2023. One particular post on platform X has gained significant traction, asserting this as part of an ongoing tragic scenario akin to a holocaust that is still in progress. However, this assertion is entirely unfounded as Harvard has not conducted or published such a study.
The confusion stems from a misinterpretation of a report by a professor from Israelโs Ben Gurion University, which appears on the Harvard Dataverse platform. This platform is essentially a repository for researchers to share their findings and is not limited to Harvard affiliates. The report in question involved mapping the geographic distance between aid distribution sites in Gaza and key population centers. The intention was to evaluate the inadequacy of these facilities, not to account for missing persons, contrary to what the social media claims suggest.
Professor Yaakov Garb, who authored the report, clarified that the misrepresented figures originated from misconstrued analysis by individuals who neither engaged with the report substantively nor verified their interpretations. The misleading claim appeared on Medium, wherein the postโs author misused a map from Garbโs report, incorrectly suggesting a vast number of missing Palestinians by using flawed calculations based on incomplete population estimates.
The erroneous conclusions in the Medium post stem primarily from subtracting IDF-provided estimates of how many people reside in three major Gazan population centers from the pre-war population figures. This inaccurate arithmetic led to the flawed assumption of 377,000 missing individuals. However, Garb emphasizes that these figures were never intended to account for 100% of Gazaโs residents, highlighting the errorโs roots in incorrect data representation and analysis.
Further complicating matters, recent Palestinian migration out of Gaza was not considered in Mediumโs analysis, casting further doubt on its conclusions. As of January 2023, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics indicated around 100,000 people had migrated since the conflictโs escalation. Garb specifies his map primarily aimed to illustrate logistical challenges faced by Gazans accessing aid compounds and acknowledges a need to amend a typo regarding population data.
Feedback from the broader research community offers perspective on the scale of the alleged issue. For instance, a study published in The Lancet estimated a significantly lower count of missing persons due to the war, ranging from 15,000 to 38,000, considerably less than the claimed number. Shelly Culbertson of RAND echoes that even factoring in those entirely cut off from communication with relatives, the upper bound wouldnโt realistically approach 400,000.
The spread of such unverified and exaggerated figures undermines genuine efforts to aid Palestinians, cautions Garb. He signals a potential chilling effect on researchersโ and advocatesโ willingness to publish on sensitive issues tied to the conflict due to the potential misuse of their work. Misinformed allegations, he concludes, ultimately harm the cause they aim to promote.