In the midst of Israel’s challenging social and economic landscape, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds his leadership tested not only by external conflict but also by a longstanding domestic issue: the military draft of young ultra-Orthodox men. While the country’s economy is strained due to the ongoing war in Gaza, and with Netanyahu entangled in a corruption trial, his coalition faces internal pressures related to this sensitive and contentious topic.
The dilemma stems from a traditional exemption that allows numerous ultra-Orthodox Jewish men to forgo compulsory military service, opting instead to pursue religious studies. This arrangement has sparked controversy within Israel, where military service is generally mandatory. Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies are pushing for legislation that would formally recognize their continued exemption from military duties, intensifying an already heated debate that has been ongoing for decades.
Historically, the religious exemption originated alongside Israel itself, as a practical compromise by its first prime minister, David Ben Gurion, who permitted around 400 seminary students to dedicate themselves entirely to Torah studies. Fast forward to today, with the ultra-Orthodox making up about 13% of the population, this practice is widely seen as unfair by many Israelis, particularly as the community’s numbers have swelled.
The war with Gaza has shone a spotlight on these tensions, exacerbating feelings of injustice among Israelis who have seen significant casualties and continuous deployment of their soldiers. The ultra-Orthodox community asserts its societal contributions come through devotion to prayer and religious study, fearing that integration into the secular military might dilute their faith’s rigors.
Despite previous High Court rulings mandating that ultra-Orthodox men meet their military obligations, compliance has been minimal. Netanyahu’s fragile grip on power relies in part on his ultra-Orthodox allies, crucial for maintaining his governing coalition. Yet, as pressure mounts from different corners—some within his own Likud party advocating for a fairer draft—the ultra-Orthodox factions are growing restless over unresolved promises.
The war has reframed the discourse around this issue, elevating public calls for equitable military service. Recognizing the growing dissatisfaction among ultra-Orthodox communities and secular Israelis alike, opposition figures see a chance to challenge Netanyahu’s coalition.
In the near term, Israel’s Knesset is set to deliberate on draft-related legislation. A preliminary vote could occur soon, gauging if the ultra-Orthodox bloc can secure the bill’s passage. Should it progress to committee and subsequent readings, the outcome could significantly alter Israel’s political landscape. Failures in these votes might delay any dissolution of parliament or elections by half a year, but success could set the stage for new elections three to six months down the line.