DAKAR, Senegal — After three and a half years of active involvement in combat operations against Islamic extremists and insurgents in Mali, the Wagner Group, which is backed by Russia, announced its withdrawal from the region on Friday.
The group declared the completion of its mission, stating through its Telegram channel that it had succeeded in bringing all regional capitals under the control of the Malian army and had pushed militants out, resulting in the deaths of their leaders.
However, despite Wagner’s exit, Russia intends to maintain a mercenary footprint in the West African nation. The state-controlled paramilitary entity, known as the Africa Corps, indicated through its Telegram channel that the Russian presence in Mali would endure, unaffected by Wagner’s withdrawal.
For over a decade, Mali, along with its neighbors Burkina Faso and Niger, has been entangled in conflict with insurgent groups, including factions aligned with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
With the decline of Western influence in the region, Russia has seized the opportunity to fill the void by extending offers of military cooperation. Russia initially boosted its ties with African nations through the deployment of Wagner mercenaries. Following the 2023 death of Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who perished in a plane crash after a brief rebellion against President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has focused on advancing the Africa Corps to supersede Wagner.
Directly overseen by the Russian defense ministry, the Africa Corps has emerged as a successor force. U.S. officials estimate around 2,000 mercenaries operate in Mali, although it’s unclear how these numbers divide between Wagner and the Africa Corps.
Beverly Ochieng, a Sahel security analyst for Control Risks, suggested that the Russian defense ministry has been in discussions with Malian authorities to integrate more Africa Corps personnel and potentially merge Wagner’s operators into Russia’s overarching paramilitary framework.
Ochieng highlighted that since Prigozhin’s passing, Russia has strategized to bring Wagner under its defense ministry’s command, incorporating the Africa Corps as a means to sustain a presence in territories where Wagner used to operate.
Wagner has been stationed in Mali since late 2021 post-coup, replacing French troops and international forces in battling militants. However, the group, alongside Mali’s forces, has faced accusations of targeting civilians amid struggles to contain the violence.
International pressure mounted with UN experts urging Malian officials to probe reports of forced disappearances and summary executions allegedly perpetrated by Wagner and the Malian army. Human Rights Watch also reported deliberate killings of civilians by both the Malian forces and Wagner over several months.
Recent attacks led by an al-Qaida affiliate, JNIM, inflicted significant casualties on the Malian military and Russian mercenaries, prompting speculation that these losses may have influenced Wagner’s retreat.
Rida Lyammouri, a Sahel expert at the Policy Center for the New South, based in Morocco, raised the possibility of internal conflicts leading to Wagner’s withdrawal. He suggested that the lack of simultaneous official announcements from Malian authorities and Wagner indicates potential internal disputes or a reshaped Russian strategy in Mali.
Replacing Wagner mercenaries with Africa Corps personnel marks a transition in Russia’s tactics, focusing more on training than directly engaging alongside the Malian army, explained Ulf Laessing of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
Laessing noted that compared to the more combative presence of the Wagner Group, the Africa Corps possesses a subtler approach, emphasizing training, equipment provision, and protective services.