HANOI, Vietnam — In a significant policy shift, Vietnam has decided to remove its long-standing restriction that limited families to two children. This decision aims to counteract the declining birth rates and address the challenges posed by an aging population. On Wednesday, the state-run Vietnam News Agency reported that the National Assembly had passed amendments abolishing these restrictions.
In recent years, Vietnam has seen a notable decline in its birth rates. In 2021, the birth rate was recorded at 2.11 children per woman, which was just slightly above the replacement level necessary to maintain a stable population. However, these numbers have steadily decreased, with birth rates dropping to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and 1.91 in 2024.
Vietnam isn’t unique in experiencing low fertility rates within Asia. While other countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore face similar challenges, Vietnam is distinct as it is still a developing economy.
Nguyen Thu Linh, a 37-year-old marketing manager from Hanoi, highlighted the financial challenges families face. She and her husband decided to have only one child to provide their 6-year-old son with the best possible education and upbringing within their financial means. She reflected, “Sometimes, I think about having another child so my son can have a sibling, but there’s so much financial and time pressure if you have another child.”
The two-child policy was introduced in 1988 with the intention of allowing women to dedicate more time to work rather than childcare. Vietnam entered its “golden population” phase in 2007, characterized by a larger working-age population compared to dependents. This phase is predicted to last until 2039. However, the workforce is expected to peak by 2042, and by 2054, the population may begin to decline, potentially stymying economic growth as the elderly population’s demands increase.
Interestingly, the decline in birth rates is not consistent across the country. In Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s economic center, the fertility rate stood at a mere 1.39 children per woman in 2024, significantly lower than the national average. Concurrently, about 12% of the city’s residents are aged over 60, placing a strain on social welfare services. In response, local authorities have started to incentivize childbirth by offering women approximately $120 if they have two children before the age of 35.
Vietnam is also grappling with a gender imbalance due to a traditional preference for male children. In an attempt to address this, regulations prevent doctors from revealing a baby’s sex before birth, and sex-selective abortions are prohibited. Recently, the health ministry suggested increasing the penalties for attempting to select a baby’s sex to $3,800.
This policy shift reflects regional variations in approaches to population control. For example, China pioneered its one-child policy in 1979 out of concerns over population growth. As it faces similar challenges related to an aging populace, it has relaxed these policies over the years to allow more children, but the anticipated boost in birthrates has not materialized.