In the midst of political upheaval, South Korea is poised to elect a new president this week. This follows the controversial removal of conservative Yoon Suk Yeol, who faced backlash over a brief period of martial law he imposed. It seems that liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is emerging as the frontrunner in Tuesday’s sudden election. His lead is credited to widespread public dissatisfaction stemming from Yoon’s actions last December. The primary conservative contender, Kim Moon Soo, is striving for an unexpected victory, but experts note that his unwillingness to openly criticize Yoon has made it challenging for him to compete with Lee.
The new president will assume office on Wednesday, bypassing the usual two-month transition. The urgent challenges they will face include mending domestic divisions caused by Yoon’s actions, alongside grappling with U.S. policies under President Donald Trump and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
Lee, representing the main liberal Democratic Party, appears to have a strong advantage in the race. Recent Gallup Korea surveys indicate that between 46% to 49% of respondents support Lee as their choice, comfortably outpacing Kim who has secured 35% to 37% support. Lee narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, but spearheaded efforts in parliament to overturn Yoon’s martial law decree, which culminated in Yoon’s impeachment by the Constitutional Court in April. Lee’s vocal criticism of the conservative establishment and demands for accountability over Yoon’s martial law have heightened concerns among his opponents, fearing his potential presidency might further deepen national discord.
Kim, who served as a labor minister under Yoon, faces an uphill struggle as his People Power Party strives to reclaim public trust. Analysts assert that his opposition to Yoon’s impeachment and his hesitance to criticize the deposed leader have alienated moderate voters. The race also includes three other candidates, notably Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party. Jun-seok has denied collaborating with Kim to consolidate conservative support, risking a split in conservative votes.
The election campaign has turned acrimonious, with candidates trading damaging remarks, personal attacks, and derogatory language. Despite these heated exchanges, there is a noticeable absence of clear, long-term strategies for South Korea. During a televised debate last week, candidates resorted to labeling each other with derogatory terms, further marring the campaign’s tone. Notably, North Korea’s nuclear program has not been a major electoral talking point, reflecting a shared view among candidates that persuading North Korea to dismantle its nuclear arsenal poses immediate challenges. Trump’s trade policies have also not significantly divided the candidates.
Kim has concentrated his campaign on painting Lee as a leader likely to seize excessive control, potentially manipulating the judiciary and halting his trials through legislative changes. Conversely, Lee has persistently challenged Kim’s affiliations with Yoon.
The incoming president will confront pressing international and domestic issues. There is limited time for negotiations with the U.S. before a crucial deadline on global tariffs, potentially affecting South Korean exports. While a U.S. court recently ruled Trump’s authority to impose these tariffs invalid, this decision is under appeal, leaving the situation uncertain. South Korea’s current government has been rushing to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., aiming to mitigate potential economic impacts.
Internally, the new presidency faces a deeply polarized nation. The fervor around Yoon’s presidency saw massive public demonstrations both in favor of and against his leadership. Yoon had accused Lee’s party of acting against the state’s interests, obstructing his policies, and hinted at unfounded election fraud claims, fueling street protests with “Stop the Steal” messaging.
In response, Lee has pledged to unify the nation and not pursue political retribution if elected. However, skeptics worry Lee might use investigations into Yoon’s martial law as a means to suppress opposition. Meanwhile, Yoon’s ongoing legal battles, entailing severe rebellion charges that could result in life imprisonment or even the death penalty, are expected to cast a shadow over the early months of the new administration.