In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated through his actions and demands that he is only interested in a peace settlement that aligns with his uncompromising terms. Meanwhile, his forces continue relentless missile and drone assaults against Ukraine, suggesting that military action will persist until his conditions are accepted.
Despite these aggressive tactics, Putin has maintained a somewhat conciliatory front towards U.S. President Donald Trump, commending his diplomatic efforts and expressing a willingness for peace talks. However, the terms he set are extreme and have been outright dismissed by Kyiv and Western nations.
Trump, who has previously stated that he could resolve the three-year conflict swiftly, has disrupted the traditional U.S. stance of keeping Russia at armโs length by engaging directly with Putin and criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Although Trump has indicated a frustration with Putinโs intensified actions in Ukraine, accusing him of being โcrazyโ and warning of severe consequences should Russia continue on its current path.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now part of Putinโs Security Council, retorted to Trumpโs warnings by drawing allusions to a potential World War III, emphasizing the gravity of the situation while also downplaying Trumpโs threats.
Analysts like Fyodor Lukyanov see Putin employing a psychological approach towards Trump, believing that the U.S. leader considers the Ukraine issue a lower priority that he might be eager to resolve quickly, therefore potentially making more concessions than he should.
While European allies of Ukraine are urging Trump to increase sanctions on Russia to pressure it into a ceasefire, there is anxiety that Trump might reduce U.S. involvement in the conflict. Halting or diminishing military support would severely weaken Ukraineโs defenses, exacerbating its current shortage of weapons, particularly air defense systems. The Ukrainian forces, already feeling the strain, are facing a more vigorous Russian military push, particularly in regions like Donetsk.
As Russia continues these offensives, experts forecast an escalation over the summer, with Moscow aiming to claim more territory and thereby impose even stricter conditions for peace. Analyst Jack Watling surmises that Russia will intensify its campaign to take control of the entire Donetsk region, alongside launching more aggressive bombing campaigns.
Sergei Markov, aligned with the Kremlin perspective, suggests that Russia has not yet fully ramped up its offensive to avoid upsetting Trump. But should peace discussions collapse, he predicts a significant Russian military escalation.
Putin has detailed his peace terms, including Ukraineโs withdrawal from the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Khersonโareas annexed by Russia but not completely controlled. Kyiv and its partners have firmly rebuffed these stipulations. Despite initial talks in Istanbul and a subsequent proposal for further discussions, no substantial progress has been achieved, although an agreement for a prisoner exchange was secured.
Putinโs strategy appears to aim at defusing frustration from Trump while making minimal compromises. Tatiana Stanovaya from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center notes that Putinโs strategy involves showcasing tangible efforts towards Washingtonโs peace attempts without truly yielding on core demands.
The Kremlin insists that the conflict is complex and cannot be resolved quickly, stressing the necessity of addressing its fundamental causes. Putinโs initial justifications for invading Ukraineโpreventing NATO expansion and protecting Russian speakersโare dismissed by Ukraine and Western authorities as pretexts for unjustified aggression.
In addition to territorial demands, Putin is calling for limitations on Ukraineโs military capabilities and cessation of what Moscow perceives as the glorification of certain Ukrainian nationalist figures from World War II.
In a symbolic act to underline Russiaโs steadfast positional demands, Putin has reappointed Vladimir Medinsky as the lead negotiator for talks in Istanbul. Medinsky, who has deep roots in Kremlin politics and a record of accusations against Western nations, underscored Russiaโs enduring resolve by citing a protracted 18th-century conflict with Sweden.
Medinskyโs historical analogies suggest that Moscow is prepared for a long haul, indicating that unless its demands are met, Russia is ready to continue the struggle over an extended period.