In the backdrop of significant political divisions, Poland is preparing for a pivotal presidential runoff election scheduled for Sunday. Voters are faced with a critical choice between two candidates, each presenting a profoundly different vision for the nation’s trajectory. This election follows the conclusion of Andrzej Duda’s two terms as president. The eventual winner will have the authority to either support or obstruct Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government’s agenda through the presidential power to veto legislation.
This election is occurring at a time of heightened regional tensions, largely due to Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, overarching security concerns in Europe, and domestic discussions revolving around the rule of law. The political climate adds a layer of unpredictability to the election, especially after the initial round on May 18 saw Warsaw Mayor Rafa? Trzaskowski secure over 31% of the vote while conservative historian Karol Nawrocki received nearly 30%. The competition is intense, with both candidates appearing to be evenly matched according to opinion polls. Nawrocki’s unexpectedly strong showing in the prior round challenges pre-election predictions. Meanwhile, an increased number of expatriate Poles are registered to vote in the runoff, favoring Trzaskowski.
Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian, represents the conservative vision and is affiliated with the Law and Justice party, even though he has no formal political experience or party membership. His endorsement by the party, which aims to rejuvenate its image prior to the 2027 parliamentary election, seems to bolster his appeal. Supporters see Nawrocki as embodying quintessential Polish values and believe his election would strengthen Poland’s alliance with the United States, aligning him with U.S. President Donald Trump’s views. His platform resonates with those who are wary of the European Union’s influence and who emphasize a Christian identity.
Conversely, Trzaskowski, aged 53 and currently serving as Warsaw’s mayor, is an ally of Tusk and a deputy leader of Civic Platform, a party in favor of the European Union. Known for modernizing Warsaw, he is recognized for extending public transit and investing in cultural projects. Trzaskowski’s platform champions deeper integration with the European Union, focusing on democratic values and judicial independence.
Nawrocki’s campaign has gained traction with endorsements from notable figures such as Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who view the election as part of a larger ideological contest between global liberal and conservative forces. His supporters claim Trzaskowski’s pro-EU stance would result in Poland ceding control to countries like France and Germany. Meanwhile, European centrists favor Trzaskowski, who they perceive as a defender of democracy amidst rising authoritarian pressures worldwide, bolstered by support from Romanian President Nicusor Dan.
Recent controversies have marked Nawrocki’s campaign, with his past involvement in a physical altercation alongside football hooligans, and alleged connections to organized crime and illicit activities surfacing in the media. Yet such allegations seem to have galvanized his support base amid claims that the media is unfairly targeting him, a sentiment common among his right-wing defendor.
Key issues dominating this election include regional security concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with differing perspectives on Ukraine’s potential future NATO membership. While both candidates advocate for supporting Ukraine, they diverge on whether the nation should eventually join NATO. Furthermore, the state of the judiciary and democratic norms features prominently, with Trzaskowski advocating for judicial independence and closer EU relations, and Nawrocki expected to maintain his party’s controversial judicial reforms. Women’s rights, especially the contentious issue of abortion, remain a pivotal topic, showcasing the stark differences between Trzaskowski’s progressive stance and Nawrocki’s traditional conservative principles.