As Venezuelans prepare for Sunday’s election to select members of the National Assembly, governors, and other regional positions, the political climate is marked by significant tension. Opposition members are advocating for abstention, while the ruling party seeks to strengthen its power. Both camps are seeking favorable moves from the U.S. government, as these decisions may prove more impactful to citizens than the election itself.
This election marks the first opportunity for wide voter participation since the controversial presidential election of last year, when President Nicolás Maduro claimed victory amidst concerns over the credibility of the results. The opposition is largely incapacitated, with key figures such as María Corina Machado in hiding to evade arrest and many other leaders either in exile or imprisoned.
Carmen Medina, a small business owner in Caracas, expresses her disillusionment, stating, “We lost confidence in voting. On July 28, they made fun of us,” indicating her reluctance to participate in the election.
A poll conducted by Delphos, a Venezuelan research firm, revealed a strikingly low turnout expectation, with only 15.9% of respondents likely to vote. Among those, a majority indicated support for the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela and its allies, despite calls for an election boycott by opposition leaders who were disappointed with the process.
According to sociologist Roberto Briceño from the Laboratory of Social Sciences, Venezuelans have diminished faith in their vote as an instrument for change, following the disheartening outcome of July’s election. The ongoing economic hardship has compounded their sense of despair about the future. Inflation has heightened, making basic food and necessities overwhelmingly expensive, while monthly wages have plunged to a mere fraction of sustenance levels.
A significant factor in the economic turmoil is the status of a U.S. permit controlling oil powerhouse Chevron Corp.’s operations in Venezuela. Over recent years, Chevron has managed about 20% of Venezuelan oil production, providing a critical flow of U.S. dollars that helps stabilize the country’s currency exchange rate.
The fate of Chevron’s operations hinges on the U.S. administration’s decision, something that bears considerable weight on the country’s economic stability, overshadowing the potential impact of the electoral outcome. Maduro’s government dominantly dictates essential services and deploys tough measures against opposition leaders, further tightening its grip on power in various regions.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that Chevron’s oil license is scheduled to expire as planned, despite conflicting reports from other U.S. officials who suggested a potential extension. This bureaucratic tug-of-war leaves Venezuelans anxiously awaiting the final decision’s implications.
This election is being organized by the National Electoral Council loyal to the ruling party, overseeing legislative positions, governors, and additional roles established amid ongoing territorial disputes. The council’s removal of QR codes from voting machine tally sheets, previously used to verify election outcomes, has also stirred contention.
The government has recently detained numerous individuals, from protesters to political advocates, flagging them as a security threat. Among those arrested is Juan Pablo Guanipa, an opposition leader, criminally charged amid plans to disrupt election proceedings. According to his brother, Tomás Guanipa, the arrest aims to suppress oppositional viewpoints.
On social media, opposition factions urge Venezuelans to abstain from voting, arguing this serves to legitimize the current oppressive regime. However, the recurring call for boycott, without tangible results, has disheartened many participants.
David Smilde, a Tulane University professor with decades of experience studying Venezuela, believes the opposition’s fragmented approach is bound to fail. He predicts the government will emerge victorious, citing the fractured opposition’s inability to present a united front against Maduro, essentially allowing the ruling party to claim a hollow electoral transparency.