WARSAW, Poland — As Poland’s presidential election enters a critical phase, the initial results from Sunday’s first round of voting have signaled a significant warning for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s moderate government. While a few political right and far-right candidates had a successful day, it has posed challenges for Tusk’s agenda. Two major candidates, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafa? Trzaskowski and a conservative backed by the Law and Justice party, Karol Nawrocki, are set to face off in a tight race.
Both candidates garnered a close share of votes, with Trzaskowski receiving 31.36% and Nawrocki, endorsed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, securing 29.54%, as the final tallies revealed on Monday morning. The stage is set for an intense second-round contest on June 1, which could determine the future direction of Poland’s political landscape.
“The upcoming two-week campaign promises to be divisive and vehement, showcasing two contrasting visions for Poland: one that is pro-EU, liberal, and progressive, versus a nationalist, Trump-aligned, and conservative stance,” remarked Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations in Warsaw.
The forthcoming election not only affects presidential leadership, which has the power to shape foreign policy and veto legislation, but it will also impact Tusk’s attempts to mend ties with European allies. Under Law and Justice, Poland’s relations with Brussels had often been strained.
Intriguingly, Poland’s election coincided with a similar political contest in Romania, where Bucharest’s centrist mayor, Nicusor Dan, secured the presidency, overcoming a significant challenge from a hard-right nationalist. This result brought some relief to European observers concerned about growing nationalist sentiment, which often overlaps with Russia-friendly positions.
In Poland, Prime Minister Tusk has been attempting to reverse certain judicial reforms deemed undemocratic by the EU, though his efforts faced obstacles from outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda. Discontent also brews among centrist and progressive constituents, who feel Tusk has not advanced on promises such as liberalizing restrictive abortion laws. Criticism also surrounds his tact in seizing control of public media, originally under Law and Justice, with continued politicization drawing ire.
As Trzaskowski and Nawrocki move toward their final electoral showdown, they have already hit the campaign trail with vigor. Trzaskowski engaged with citizens in Kielce, offering sweet yeast buns, while Nawrocki mingled with supporters in Gdansk, handing out donuts and capturing selfies. Despite Trzaskowski’s position as a leading contender, Sunday’s results cast doubt on his winning prospects.
Nawrocki declared his campaign fueled by “energy and enthusiasm,” proclaiming Trzaskowski as potentially ineffectual. Conversely, Trzaskowski remained determined, appealing to youth and diverse voters: “I will endeavor to unify those who seek a normal Poland over a radical one,” he asserted in Karzysko-Kamienna.
The future for both candidates hinges greatly on the decisions of voters from the first-round pool, whose subsequent support remains unpredictable. Observers claim that vote transfers may not always follow predictable paths, and some disillusioned voters might abstain from the second round altogether.
In the broader electoral narrative, the far-right emerged as a noteworthy force, with over 20% of voters casting their ballots for candidates espousing conservative and nationalistic ideologies akin to Nawrocki’s platform. S?awomir Mentzen of the hard-right Confederation party secured 14.8% of votes, while far-right extremist Grzegorz Braun acquired more than 6%, marking a dramatic development in Poland’s political terrain.
Braun’s agenda, marked by antisemitic and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, has gained notoriety, including a disruptive incident at a hospital to arrest a doctor over a late-term abortion. His supporters have demonstrated similarly, pulling down a Ukrainian flag from a municipal building. Known for provocative acts, Braun’s history includes attempts to extinguish candles on a Jewish menorah in parliament using a fire extinguisher.
In contrast, candidates from Tusk’s coalition, encompassing left-wing, centrist, and center-right allies, collectively won about 40% of the vote share. “The initial results showing right-wing and far-right candidates capturing 54% of votes is a significant surprise,” commented Buras. “It positions Nawrocki advantageously ahead of the decisive runoff on June 1, with potentially more votes available to him.”