In the lead-up to the next presidential election, the Democratic Party faces a significant decision: determining which state will cast the first ballot in the primaries. President Joe Biden has already shaken things up for the 2024 election calendar by moving South Carolina to the front of the line, ahead of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. As these traditionally early-voting states maneuver to regain their prime positions before the Democratic National Committee (DNC) finalizes the order, other states are contemplating vying for the top spot as well. The outcome could have substantial implications for the party, which is grappling with its direction following the 2020 presidential election loss to former President Donald Trump. Each state’s early influence offers potential advantages to different candidates by emphasizing various demographic components of the Democratic base.
Looking forward to 2028, potential candidates are already visiting key early states, suggesting preferred paths to securing the nomination. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker recently delivered a keynote speech in New Hampshire, a state valued for its engaged participation and diverse voter tendencies. Maryland Governor Wes Moore, the state’s first Black governor, plans to appear at a South Carolina Democratic event, highlighting the importance of Black voters, who are pivotal to the Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Pete Buttigieg, a former presidential candidate and ex-Transportation Secretary, is scheduled for an event in Iowa with the VoteVets Action Fund. Despite technical issues during the 2020 Iowa caucuses, which obscured the outcome, the state remains influential. However, Iowa Democrats are looking past the snub from the 2024 cycle, where Biden chose a more diverse state to lead, as Iowa is predominantly white. Despite losing their traditional caucuses, Iowa Democrats emphasize focusing on the forthcoming 2026 elections, especially with hopes of flipping congressional districts.
Iowa Democrats maintain that their early influence is beneficial, and there is hope that the 2028 cycle will offer a fair process. Former U.S. Representative Dave Nagle, recalling a similar situation in 1984, suggested that Iowa should boldly assert its first-in-the-nation status, despite opposition from the national party.
In contrast, New Hampshire managed to hold an unsanctioned primary that saw Biden emerge victorious through write-in votes despite not being on the ballot. Following this, the DNC dropped its threat to sideline New Hampshire’s national convention delegates. Ray Buckley, the state’s party chairman, believes the future will proceed on a more level playing ground, with no drastic interventions from the DNC. Furthermore, New Hampshire state law requires them to schedule their primary ahead of any others, giving them leverage.
Meanwhile, Nevada also seeks an early place in the presidential primary discourse. State Democratic leaders are advocating for Nevada to kickstart the 2028 cycle because of its diverse population, including a significant Latino, Black, and Asian presence, alongside a strong union representation. They argue that Nevada represents the country’s diversity and is a strategic battleground.
South Carolina, whose primary results contributed significantly to Biden’s 2020 campaign resurgence, also wants to retain its premier position in selecting the Democratic nominee. Christale Spain, aiming for her second term as state party chair, plans to make a compelling case for South Carolina to remain primary in the upcoming cycle. Notably, the state has hosted various influential Democratic figures at key events, emphasizing its critical role in the primary process.
As the Democratic Party navigates through the decisions on the primary order, various states continue to make their case. Each state brings its own set of advantages, differences, and political significance, influencing how the Democratic Party will shape the early stages of its presidential nominating process.