In the early days of 2022, following Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine, Poland opened its doors to millions of Ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children. This act of generosity saw Ukrainian flags prominently displayed in Polish homes, and volunteers expedited to the Polish-Ukrainian border with essential supplies and services such as food, diapers, and SIM cards. This rapid mobilization encapsulated Poland’s role as a critical support system for Ukraine, characterized by a remarkable show of human compassion.
Fast forward to three years later, and Poland continues to serve as one of Ukraine’s most unwavering allies. It is a crucial nexus for Western arms delivery and a fervent advocate for Kyiv’s interests on the international stage. Yet, domestic sentiments towards the Ukrainian refugees have seen a notable change.
Approximately a million Ukrainian refugees remain in Poland, contributing to a Ukrainian population of nearly 2 million in a nation of 38 million. Many had previously migrated as economic workers before the war commenced. As Poland gears up for its presidential election on May 18, with the likelihood of a runoff on June 1, there is a palpable shift in the public’s appetite for aiding Ukrainians. This change has prompted some candidates to advocate for less assistance as a strategy to garner votes.
Piotr D?ugosz, a sociology professor at Jagiellonian University in Krakow, addresses the evolving public opinion towards Ukrainian war refugees, supported by data from the Public Opinion Research Center in Warsaw. Their survey noted a drop in support for assisting Ukrainians—from 94% at the onset of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, to 57% as of December 2024. This trend of declining support is further substantiated by various studies.
Key candidates have shaped their campaigns around this new wave of sentiment. Among them is conservative contender Karol Nawrocki, who represents the Law and Justice party. Known as one of the prominent figures expected to replace President Andrzej Duda, Nawrocki has demonstrated a shift in his stance toward Ukrainian refugees, prioritizing Polish interests.
While Law and Justice were once at the forefront of the humanitarian response during Duda’s presidency, Nawrocki’s message now resonates with a nationalist tone emphasized during his recent visit to the White House, reminiscent of rhetoric used by former US President Donald Trump. He has critiqued Ukraine’s approach towards Poland, suggesting they are lacking in gratitude.
Nawrocki has proposed policies that place Polish citizens first when it comes to access to public services, such as healthcare and education, signifying a broader focus on national over refugee priorities. Further right, candidates like S?awomir Mentzen and his Confederation party criticize Ukrainians for straining social services, escalating housing costs, and exploiting Polish assistance.
Even centrist figures like Rafa? Trzaskowski, once a proponent of Ukrainian support, are now calling for qualifications to access benefits, suggesting that only tax-paying, working Ukrainian refugees should be eligible for child assistance schemes. These policy adjustments reflect a response to shifting narratives within the political landscape.
Despite these sociopolitical shifts, Ukrainians argue their contributions to the Polish economy are considerable, with many setting up businesses and supporting local development. Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar challenges the notion of Ukrainians being undue beneficiaries, highlighting their significant economic contributions compared to the fraction receiving aid.
As these dynamics unfold in Poland, experts like Ma?gorzata Bonikowska and sociologist Rafa? Pankowski observe that while integration challenges arise from cultural intermingling, a core of stable support for Ukraine persists. They emphasize that while negative sentiments surface, predominantly cooperative and amicable interactions continue between Poles and Ukrainians on an everyday basis.
For Ukrainian residents like Kateryna, these tensions are concerning. She reflects on the initial kindness extended by Poles and recalls the change in public demeanor. Yet she remains hopeful that solidarity prevails over potential discord, recognizing the broader geopolitical implications of disunity in the region.