Saudi Arabia is actively seeking the support of the United States to develop its civil nuclear program, a move welcomed by the Trump administration with enthusiasm. The potential for U.S.-Saudi collaboration in constructing nuclear reactors for energy generation in the kingdom presents an opportunity to exclude Chinese and Russian participation, likely turning it into a lucrative venture for the American nuclear sector.
Nevertheless, there are significant hurdles, primarily concerns that Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of uranium enrichment as part of this collaboration could contribute to nuclear proliferation. The kingdom’s quest for a nuclear agreement is poised to significantly influence the continually evolving discourse around regional security involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel.
President Donald Trump, during his first trip to Saudi Arabia in his second term, is expected to address these issues. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who visited Saudi Arabia ahead of Trump’s visit, indicated that significant advances in helping the kingdom establish a commercial nuclear power sector are anticipated this year. Wright expressed the U.S.’s keen interest in this initiative, although experts caution against expecting substantial breakthroughs during Trump’s trip.
Analyst Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington suggests that the U.S. might aim to demonstrate commitment to Saudi nuclear efforts without fully committing to a partnership. There are numerous approaches to indicate progress toward an agreement without a full partnership, providing room for diplomatic maneuvering.
Saudi Arabia, though a leading oil power, is an arid nation. It expends a considerable portion of its oil production on domestic energy consumption, such as air conditioning, which consumes a third of the oil it extracts. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aims to enhance Saudi Arabia’s mineral mining and processing capabilities, including uranium, a potential reactor fuel.
For the U.S., assisting in Saudi nuclear reactor development could bolster American firms. Moreover, globally, there is advocacy for American involvement to prevent China and Russia from stepping in to aid Saudi Arabia with possibly fewer safeguards in place. The belief prevails that if the U.S. refrains, others might step in, accelerating nuclear proliferation risks.
While some analysts speculate that nuclear weapons could be an end goal for Saudi Arabia, largely due to historical tensions with Iran, their focus has shifted toward improved diplomacy. Despite remarks from Prince Mohammed indicating a potential nuclear arms race if Iran advances its nuclear capability, current regional policies favor peaceful nuclear programs.
Saudi Arabia continues to push for the capability to enrich its uranium, having invested significantly, with assistance from China, to explore its uranium resources. However, developing these resources economically is doubtful, according to the Nuclear Energy Agency. Allowing Saudi Arabia to host enrichment facilities could disturb long-standing U.S. policies and provoke nuclear proliferation among allies and rival nations.
In the realm of regional security, nuclear collaboration with Saudi Arabia is intertwined with broader negotiations including military cooperation, security guarantees, and discussions on Israeli-Palestinian issues. The Trump administration has seemingly separated nuclear cooperation from these complex negotiations, yet the prospect of a substantial nuclear agreement remains a strategic tool in negotiating historic diplomatic ties, notably those between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
John Alterman mentions that positioning a nuclear agreement as part of the broader framework of the Abraham Accords could serve as leverage in fostering diplomatic relations between the kingdom and Israel, akin to other Arab states’ agreements with Israel. The regional actors, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia, are keenly aware of each other’s engagements with the U.S. concerning their nuclear activities, with both managing their expectations and strategies accordingly.