CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. โ This weekend, Earth is expected to witness the reentry of a Soviet spacecraft, originally launched 53 years ago, which never completed its journey to Venus. Designated to withstand the extreme conditions on Venus, this titanium-protected craft is set for an uncontrolled descent through Earthโs atmosphere on Saturday. Despite the potential for a fiery descent, itโs predicted that the spacecraft, or parts of it, could survive this fall. Experts suggest that it is likely to crash into vast stretches of water or isolated regions, with minimal risk to populated areas.
University of Colorado Boulder scientist Marcin Pilinski emphasized the low probability of the spacecraft hitting densely populated zones, describing the chances as โinfinitesimally small.โ In an email statement, Pilinski mentioned that although significant portions may not completely disintegrate during the reentry, the impact could cause substantial damage to what remains.
By Friday, various global space debris tracking teams converged on predictions indicating the spacecraft, named Kosmos 482, might reenter early Saturday morning according to U.S. Eastern Time, providing an approximate window of several hours. Yet, uncertainty looms regarding the precise timing and location of its descent. This ambiguity stems from potential solar disturbances and the spacecraftโs aging condition, rendering its parachutes ineffective and its power sources long expired.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek estimated that if Kosmos 482 remains intact, it could hit the ground at speeds reaching 150 mph (242 kph). This spacecraft, launched by the Soviets in 1972, was intended for Venus as part of their Venera program. Unfortunately, a rocket failure left Kosmos 482 trapped in Earthโs orbit, where gravitational forces are now set to bring it down.
The craft, resembling a sphere with a diameter of about 3 feet (1 meter) and weighing over 1,000 pounds (495 kilograms), represents the final portion of Kosmos 482 to descend from space, as the other components have already fallen within a decade of its launch.
According to international agreements, any surviving fragments of the spacecraft will legally belong to Russia, adhering to United Nationsโ treaties.