Aaron Judge’s quest to hit .400 faces a significant challenge in his strikeout numbers, despite drawing comparisons to Ted Williams, who remains the last American League player to achieve this hallowed milestone. Williams, known for his legendary .406 season in 1941, had only 27 strikeouts across that year. In contrast, Judge has already surpassed that total, with 31 strikeouts in his 2023 season, which significantly impacts his chances of reaching Williams’ record.
Judge, with a remarkable .423 batting average over 34 games, leads the majors by 74 points more than his New York Yankees teammate, Paul Goldschmidt. His current on-base plus slugging (OPS) mirrors what Williams achieved in 1941, standing at 1.287. Despite hitting home runs at an impressive rate of one every 11.82 at-bats, Judge’s strikeout rate raises a red flag; he’s struck out in 20.3% of his plate appearances. To put that into perspective, in the live-ball era, Manny Ramirez is the only player to have hit .350 with a 20% strikeout rate, back in 2000.
Aspiring .400 hitters can glean some lessons from Judge’s performance and those historical hitters who came close. The first strategy should be to maintain a smaller sample size. Players like Williams achieved their feats in seasons with fewer than 162 games. Williams himself played 143 games in 1941, while notable others like George Brett and Tony Gwynn had even fewer games during their near-.400 runs. Compiling fewer at-bats while drawing substantial walks, as Williams did with 147 walks in 1941, can aid in sustaining a high average.
Furthermore, consistent contact is crucial. For power hitters like Judge, with such a high strikeout percentage, maintaining a batting average involves getting hits on at least half the occasions when a strikeout doesn’t occur. At present, Judge is performing extraordinarily well in that regard. Additionally, a key component to achieving such batting averages involves a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). While partially luck-based, hitting line drives and strategically converting ground balls into base hits can significantly boost batting performance. Historically, George Sisler’s BABIP of .422 in 1922 propelled him to a .420 average.
Although not frequent in contemporary baseball, this year’s league-wide BABIP stands at .288, demonstrating the increased defensive efficiency of modern players. Despite this, home runs remain an asset. Players like Rod Carew, who supplemented a high BABIP with several home runs, have come close to the .400 mark, indicating the potential power hitters possess in this quest. Yet few players, including Barry Bonds in his peak seasons, have managed to align high walk rates, home runs, and minimal strikeouts into achieving a .400 average, making the feat elusive.
Wade Boggs was another figure who seemed within reach yet fell short of the .400 mark due to various factors. Across several seasons, Boggs showcased impressive BABIP numbers and home run capabilities, well-accompanied by a disciplined approach at the plate. When combining his best statistics into one theoretical season, the calculations still barely surpassed a .400 average.
In other baseball news, Jake Meyers shone with an outstanding performance for the Houston Astros, recording four hits, two home runs, and seven RBIs in a victory against the Chicago White Sox, tying a franchise record. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays staged an impressive comeback to overcome the Boston Red Sox, demonstrating late-game resilience and clinching victory in extra innings, initiated by Daulton Varsho and sealed by Alejandro Kirk’s decisive hits.