Betting Surge on Next Pope Before Conclave

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    ROME — Next week, the Catholic Church will hold a conclave to select the successor to Pope Francis, a tradition rich in history and significance for the Church’s 1.4 billion followers. However, while cardinals will gather within the confines of the Sistine Chapel to cast their votes, a different kind of activity is stirring far beyond the Vatican.

    Around the globe, people are partaking in various forms of wagers and predictions regarding the identity of the next pope. From engaging in cash bets through online platforms to participating in games reminiscent of fantasy sports leagues, and even making lighthearted bets within social circles, the act of guessing the new leader of the Catholic Church has become increasingly popular.

    Sam Eaton, managing the U.K. section of Oddschecker, an influential online service analyzing betting odds, notes that this unusual market has piqued significant international interest. “Globally, there’s a phenomenal level of attention,” Eaton observes. “We haven’t really seen a betting landscape like this where so many countries are looking at the odds.”

    Leading up to the conclave, substantial bets are pouring in on the next pope. Eaton mentions that Oddschecker has attracted attention from individuals in approximately 140 countries. In countries such as the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the United States, thousands have shown interest in their chosen cardinal’s prospects. As of this week, British gamblers have staked about 30,000 pounds – about $40,000 – with a leading online betting service.

    Despite papal betting being somewhat niche compared to events like the Eurovision song contest, Lee Phelps from William Hill, a major U.K. bookmaker, acknowledges its growing appeal. “Betting on the next pope is a unique market that generates global interest,” Phelps says. With the conclave imminent, Phelps anticipates an uptick in betting activity.

    Though betting on such events is traditional in the U.K., it remains illegal in the U.S. Nonetheless, illegal betting sites continue to operate, with Eaton noting that one prominent website sees around $10 million in bets on the papal outcome.

    In Italy, where betting on religious events is prohibited, a more playful approach has emerged with locals partaking in informal bets or using the Fantapapa game. This platform allows users to form fantasy ‘teams’ of cardinals, picking who they believe stands the best chance of becoming the next pope.

    Fantasy Pope, with over 60,000 participants, adds a touch of humor and community to the event. Players choose their team captain, with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin leading as the top choice, closely followed by Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Italian student Federico La Rocca partakes in the game for amusement, drawn by Tagle’s appeal as a likable individual. “It’s a fun way to engage with friends,” he explains.

    The game, created by Mauro Vanetti, offers no monetary reward, just the fun of predicting and a share in the “eternal glory” of getting it right. Vanetti and his collaborators wanted to share in the light-hearted, slightly irreverent curiosity surrounding such a solemn occasion without promoting gambling.

    Despite the humor, this new trend hasn’t escaped controversy. Concerns regarding betting ethics, especially on significant religious events, echo among some critics. Although Catholic doctrine doesn’t label gambling as innately sinful, caution is advised against its potential to financially entrap individuals.

    Both the playfulness and concern illustrate society’s complex relationship with gambling, especially in the context of such a deeply spiritual occasion. As the conclave approaches, the conversation continues around the balance of tradition, belief, and modern engagement.