CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — A spacecraft from the Soviet era, originally intended for a mission to Venus in the 1970s, is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry to Earth. Space debris-tracking analysts have yet to determine the potential landing zone for this half-ton piece of metal or the extent of its survival upon reentry.
According to projections by Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek, the spacecraft may reenter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10. If it stays intact, it could strike the surface at speeds of approximately 150 mph (242 kph). Despite the inherent risks, Langbroek reassures that the situation should not cause undue concern.
Given its small size, the risk it poses is comparable to that of a meteorite fall, which occur multiple times annually, he noted. “You’re more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime,” Langbroek explained. Although the possibility of the spacecraft impacting a person or a structure cannot be ruled out entirely, its probability remains relatively low.
Launched by the Soviet Union in 1972, the spacecraft—named Kosmos 482—was part of a fleet heading to Venus. However, it failed to escape Earth’s orbit due to rocket malfunction. Most of its components descended back to Earth within ten years, but the landing capsule, a 3-foot (1-meter) wide sphere, has remained in a highly elliptical orbit, gradually lowering over the past 53 years.
Langbroek and colleagues suspect the spacecraft, which tipped the scales at over 1,000 pounds (nearly 500 kilograms), could withstand reentry. Initially designed to endure the dense carbon dioxide atmosphere of Venus, its survival is uncertain. Langbroek, affiliated with the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, stated its parachute system might no longer function and the heat shield could be compromised after decades in space.
Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics stated that should the heat shield fail, the spacecraft would likely disintegrate in the atmosphere. However, if it remains intact, “you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky.”
Potential reentry locations span latitudes from 51.7 degrees north to south, which includes areas as north as London and Edmonton, Alberta, and as far south as Cape Horn in South America. Nevertheless, due to the planet’s vast ocean coverage, Langbroek predicts it is likely to end up in a body of water.