In January 2024, Donald Trump was quick to claim the stock market surge as his doing, attributing it to his popularity among investors as he led the polls against President Joe Biden. Fast forward to early 2025, when the stock market stumbled in reaction to the economy’s contraction during the first quarter, Trump was unapologetically pointing fingers at Biden. On his Truth Social platform, he stressed that the economic downturn was squarely on Biden’s shoulders, asserting, “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” and encouraged patience for the economy to thrive once again.
Furthermore, Trump declared that the nation would see unprecedented economic growth once Biden’s so-called hindrances were eliminated, quickly emphasizing that the setbacks were unrelated to tariffs. However, for economists and businesses wrestling with current economic unpredictability, the blame lay partly with Trump’s unpredictable trade tariffs that rattled global markets. According to economist Mark Zachary Taylor from Georgia Tech University, Trump’s attempt to deflect blame showcased a glaring case of double standards.
The core issue Trump’s narrative raises is when a president becomes accountable for the economic landscape during their tenure. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has assured that the impact of Trump’s policies would predominantly be felt by year’s end, particularly in the latter half. In general, it could take six months to two years, per Taylor, to squarely attribute the economy’s state to the incumbent president’s policies. However, for new presidents with sweeping agendas, the timeline may contract, as their swift actions, along with strong Congressional backing, may speed up this process.
Historically, figures like Franklin D. Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama came into power amid economic turbulence and enacted swift measures to stabilize the situation. Even so, Trump’s influence appears to have moved economic metrics more rapidly than most predecessors. Recent data revealed a dramatic 41% increase in imports—the largest, pandemic aside, since 1972—as companies scrambled to sidestep impending tariffs. This spike dragged down economic growth, with a reported shrinkage of 0.3% at an annualized rate—the first drop in two years—a catalyst for Trump’s critique of Biden.
Economists like Taylor underline that these developments were foreseeable for businesses and households preemptively contending with upcoming tariff hikes, which have also affected stock market performance and the dollar’s value. Manufacturer surveys indicate lagging orders and shrinking production, as highlighted by the Institute for Supply Management. In their monthly assessment, all commentary attributed current challenges to tariff policies, emphasizing operational impacts like delayed border crossings and intricate duty calculations.
Trump has significantly disrupted global trade dynamics by imposing broad tariffs, aiming to rejuvenate domestic jobs. These measures have included staggering tariffs on imports from China, prompting a retaliatory stance from Beijing that risks halting trade with the United States. Tariffs have extended to other imports like steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The erratic rollout of these measures—introducing, pausing, and reinstating tariffs—has left businesses, consumers, and investors in a perpetual state of uncertainty. The S&P 500 index has seen a 7% drop since just before Trump’s inauguration in January. Consumer confidence has taken a hit as well.
Economist Joseph Stiglitz from Columbia University notes that current economic challenges unequivocally stem from Trump’s tariff strategy. Previously the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Clinton, Stiglitz emphasized that the on-again, off-again nature of tariffs undeniably influences the prevailing economic conditions.