In several regions across England, residents headed to polling stations on Thursday for local elections, which serve as a critical barometer for public sentiment towards Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s center-left Labour government. This comes ten months after the administration was voted into office with a commanding majority.
The Labour Party, along with the principal opposition, the Conservative Party, was prepared for possible setbacks in this midterm election. Meanwhile, the hard-right group Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, fielded the largest number of candidates of any party, hoping to secure significant victories. These elections are deciding the outcomes for 1,600 seats across 23 local councils, determining six mayoralties, and filling one parliamentary seat.
During the previous year’s national elections, Reform UK secured approximately 14% of the vote, capturing only four of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. However, recent polls indicate that its current support level matches or even surpasses that of Labour and the Conservatives. With aspirations of becoming the leading right-wing party before the next national election set for 2029, Reform UK is setting its sights high.
“Tomorrow marks the end of two-party politics in England,” Farage declared at a rally with his supporters on Wednesday night.
The majority of election results are anticipated to be disclosed on Friday.
Reform UK is looking to gain hundreds of municipal seats, primarily from the Conservative Party, whose leader, Kemi Badenoch, could face internal challenges if the party experiences a significant loss. Acknowledging the potential outcomes, Badenoch has stated that the results might present substantial challenges for the Tories. The party performed exceptionally well in the last elections held in these areas in 2021 when then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government was enjoying a boost in popularity due to its successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
Farage’s party has set its sights on winning two or three mayoral races, alongside a special parliamentary election in Runcorn and Helsby in northwest England. Traditionally a Labour stronghold, the constituency’s political landscape has shifted since former lawmaker Mike Amesbury resigned following a conviction for assaulting a constituent during a drunken outburst.
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, commented on the competition between the Conservatives and Reform UK, describing it as “a battle for the soul of the right-wing in U.K. politics.” He added that Farage’s populist and radical right approach poses a challenge to Labour by targeting working-class voters with promises to limit immigration, boost job creation, and cut government waste.
In addition, the centrist Liberal Democrats aim to capitalize on their past success in attracting more affluent, socially liberal voters away from the Conservatives.
Bale further noted that while gaining municipal control might highlight Reform UK’s influence, it could also present increased pressure to address everyday issues such as transportation, potholes, and housing. He explained, “Populist parties often provide simplistic solutions to complex problems, which works well in opposition when all they deal in is rhetoric. However, transitioning to a position where action is required is an entirely different challenge.”