In Toronto, Canada recently held a significant federal election that served as a major litmus test for the influence of former U.S. President Donald Trump on the politics of neighboring countries, particularly those that have long been American allies. This election was particularly poignant, given Trump’s contentious return to influence in the U.S. about 100 days ago, and outcome of the election spelled a clear defeat for his sway over Canadian affairs.
As the U.S. president’s controversial rhetoric and actions posed a challenge to Canadian sovereignty and threatened the nation’s economy through a heated trade dispute, Canadian voters were notably incensed. The animosity stirred by the trade war, which disrupted an economy heavily reliant on business with its southern neighbor, significantly shifted the political landscape. The expectations were that the Liberal Party, fatigued by a ten-year tenure, would be ousted. However, contrary to predictions, they managed to recast themselves as defenders of Canadian integrity.
Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, who had shared some characteristics with Trump’s political style, was initially seen as the presumptive leader in the race for Prime Minister. Astonishingly, he lost not just the bid for leadership but also his Parliamentary seat. The election saw a turnout of 68.5%, the highest since 1993, as reported by Elections Canada.
The victory of the Liberals offered a new lease of political life to others facing Trump’s pressure. The newly empowered Prime Minister, Mark Carney, now carries a strong mandate to pursue aggressive stances on trade dialogues with the U.S. and other foreign matters. The reaction from global allies was immediately supportive, with figures such as French President Emmanuel Macron extending congratulations, referencing Canada’s “elbows up” slogan—a symbol of defiance against Trump.
The election was essentially a referendum on Trump in Canada. Many Canadians, concerned with issues like the cost of living and crime, viewed Trump’s aggressive posturing as profoundly disrespectful and a betrayal from what was considered to be Canada’s closest ally and trading partner. Trump’s statements and actions spurred an unusually strong wave of nationalism, reflected in public sentiments and consumer behaviors like boycotting American products and canceling trips to the U.S.
Even Canadian icon Wayne Gretzky faced backlash due to his personal friendship with Trump, highlighting the degree of Trump’s unpopularity across the nation.
In a notable twist, Trump himself had, back in March, tacitly acknowledged the unforeseen assistance he was providing to the Liberals’ political fortunes due to his confrontational approach, but remained undeterred in his approach. Trump later criticized Poilievre’s perceived reluctance to openly engage with him, expressing indifference to the election’s outcome.
Some supporters of Trump posited that Poilievre would have fared better politically if he had aligned himself more closely with Trump rather than distance himself. However, Trump’s inopportune endorsement, suggesting the addition of Canada to the U.S. as the 51st state, was swiftly rebuffed by Poilievre, who then emphasized Canadian sovereignty and independence.
Trudeau had also contributed to the political dynamic prior to stepping down, having responded to Trump’s provocations in a way that solidified his standing with the public and helped galvanize patriotic sentiment. Trudeau’s departure left a vacuum and cost the Conservatives a key opponent in Trudeau’s public engagements.
This event is not isolated; similar situations occurred elsewhere with Trump’s rhetoric as a backdrop. Countries like Greenland held contentious elections where Trump’s geopolitical posturing played a role, though internal issues typically prevailed in voter priorities. In Germany, far-right parties spurred by Trump’s support also saw increased momentum.
What remains uncertain is how the U.S. administration will recalibrate its stance and diplomacy in light of these events, as Trump’s actions appeared to inadvertently benefit leaders opposed to his policies. Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest noted the irony in the United States’ current situation and pondered the broader implications of such political ripples.
Despite the evident impacts, Trump expressed nonchalance about his role in shaping the Canadian election outcome, as he recounted how he had affected the Conservatives’ standings over time.
In the aftermath, the U.S. formally congratulated Carney, following customary protocol among allies, though the statement released by the White House subtly referenced Trump’s earlier mentions of annexation.