Corporations challenged in gauging tariff effects

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    In the corporate boardrooms of some of the globe’s largest companies, executives are grappling with the challenging task of articulating the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on their businesses as they unveil their most recent financial results. Some leaders base their predictions on current information; others have chosen to withdraw their forecasts completely. Amid these analyses, one constant remains: the use of the term “uncertain times” is inevitable during their discussions with analysts.

    The imposition of tariffs by Trump on critical U.S. trading partners, coupled with the deferral of other tariffs to allow for business negotiations, has created an atmosphere of unpredictability for both businesses and consumers. This constantly shifting landscape has seen tariffs announced—and sometimes rescinded—within mere days.

    Now, let’s delve into how some of these companies are responding to the situation.

    **Kraft Heinz**

    Kraft Heinz has slashed its earnings forecast for the year, pointing to a volatile business environment. The company, known for staples such as its iconic ketchup and boxed macaroni and cheese, faces pressure like many others in the food industry as inflation continues to impact consumer spending. Tariffs may compel businesses to increase prices on essential goods, contributing to rising inflation.

    “We are closely watching the possible impacts from larger economic pressures such as tariffs and inflation,” stated Carlos Abrams-Rivera, CEO of Kraft Heinz, in a public statement.

    **JetBlue Airways**

    JetBlue Airways has withdrawn its financial projections for the year due to concerns over dwindling travel demand as consumer confidence wanes. The airline industry, an indirect casualty of tariffs, grapples with higher costs across a broad array of consumer goods, exacerbating inflation and straining consumers. Travel, often considered a discretionary expense, is typically one of the first areas where households cut spending in response to increased financial pressure.

    “We noticed a decline in booking strength from January, which worsened from February into March,” remarked Marty St. George, JetBlue’s president, in a statement. To boost profits and conserve cash, JetBlue is contemplating capacity reductions, fleet retirements, and other cost-saving strategies.

    A report from the Conference Board highlighted that American confidence in the economy plummeted for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest point since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    **Coca-Cola**

    Coca-Cola has described the tariff impact on its business as likely “manageable.” Nevertheless, the beverage giant tempered its full-year profit expectations, now predicting adjusted earnings growth of 7% to 9%, down from a previous 8% to 10%. The company’s 2024 earnings reached $2.88 per share. The imposition of a 25% tariff on aluminum, used for cans, among other components, challenges Coke and other beverage manufacturers, prompting considerations of alternative aluminum suppliers, a shift towards plastic or glass bottles, and other countermeasures. Recently, competitor PepsiCo adjusted its full-year earnings forecasts downward, influenced by tariffs.

    **General Motors**

    Due to potential auto tariffs, General Motors is reevaluating its outlook for 2025. The car manufacturer postponed its conference call to review financial guidance and quarterly results until Thursday to assess potential modifications to Trump’s tariffs. On Tuesday, the White House announced that Trump would sign an executive order to relax aspects of the 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts.

    The current projection from GM estimates earnings of $11 to $12 per share, which does not take into account the possible tariff impacts. Tariffs in the auto industry could have a marked impact due to the complex regional production network, where parts and assembly cross multiple borders during the manufacturing process. This could result in elevated costs and potentially higher consumer prices, causing customers to delay or avoid purchases.

    **UPS**

    UPS modeled various scenarios for the year in response to the tariff-related uncertainty. China remains a focal point of concern for the package delivery giant, as many small businesses supported by UPS depend heavily on China for their products. While there is a standard 10% tariff on U.S. imports, tariffs on goods arriving from China can be as high as 145%.

    “China’s situation presents real uncertainty, impacting the broader economy,” said CEO Carol Tomé in an analyst call. The remainder of the world, subject to 10% tariffs, presents a more manageable scenario, she observed.

    **Sherwin-Williams**

    Sherwin-Williams foresees fluctuating demand at least through the first half of the year. The paint manufacturer reaffirmed its revenue projections, noting that 80% of its sales occur in the U.S. and that the “vast majority” of its raw materials are sourced locally. This strategic positioning renders it less vulnerable to direct tariff impacts.