VATICAN CITY — One of the significant contributions of Pope Francis has been the diversification of cardinals responsible for selecting his successor. He introduced cardinals from countries that had never been represented before, significantly altering the landscape of the upcoming papal election.
This newfound diversity complicates the usual forecasts about the next pope, as the cardinals, hailing from distant lands, haven’t established strong relationships or formed solidified voting alliances ahead of the conclave, the traditional ceremony for electing a pope. Thus, the only certainty about the conclave is its inherent unpredictability.
Reflective of the suspense in the film “Conclave,” the papal election is a drama laced with secrecy, spirituality, and complex interpersonal dynamics. Political motives and personal considerations will certainly be in play for the 130-plus cardinals as they enter the Sistine Chapel to cast their votes.
As of now, a date for the conclave hasn’t been set, but it is expected to commence by May 10. Following Francis’ funeral on Saturday, the assembled cardinals will spend the week deliberating the future direction of the Catholic Church, which counts over 1.4 billion members globally, post-Francis’ transformative leadership.
Francis’ 12-year tenure shifted focus from strict adherence to doctrine towards making the church more inclusive and embracing. This approach was hailed by progressives as a return to the Gospel’s imperative to care for the needy, whereas conservatives felt it muddled the church’s stance on issues like marriage and homosexuality.
Consequently, the cardinals face a pivotal decision: should the future pope continue Francis’ legacy of emphasizing marginalized communities, or is it necessary to steer the church towards unity after some of Francis’ reforms caused division?
A significant point of contention is whether the conservative faction, which includes cardinals from Africa, Eastern Europe, and parts of the United States, has enough influence to revert to the stricter papal styles of St. John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI.
Practical considerations also weigh heavily: selecting a pope in his 60s could result in a prolonged papacy, lasting over two decades. Opting for a leader from a thriving church community in Asia or Africa might further disrupt the Vatican’s traditional Italian-dominated bureaucracy, still adjusting to Francis’ independent approach.
Several candidates have emerged as potential frontrunners. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, an Italian and Francis’ former secretary of state, is a known figure among the cardinals. Filipino Cardinal Luis Tagle is a strong contender from Asia, owing to his significant role in Vatican evangelization. Representing the conservative church sector is Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, archbishop of Budapest.
Despite these prospects, the lack of consolidated support means no clear frontrunner has emerged. According to Marco Politi, a seasoned Vatican analyst, no candidate currently has a confirmed bloc of support.
Without a dominant frontrunner, the role of “kingmakers”—those influential cardinals capable of guiding votes—becomes paramount. Figures such as New York’s Cardinal Timothy Dolan, German Cardinal Reinhard Marx, and Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu are expected to influence the outcome significantly.
It is worth noting that, despite Francis having appointed 108 of the present electors, they may not unanimously embrace his vision. Some align with his calls for inclusivity yet disagree on controversies such as women’s ordination.
German Cardinal Reinhard Marx emphasized that the public’s grief following Francis’ passing signifies a desire for continuity in his mission, particularly concerning marginalized groups.
Among the unresolved issues is whether Cardinal Angelo Becciu, involved in financial scandals, will be eligible to vote, as his Vatican role remains contentious.
Logistical challenges also loom, such as accommodating 135 cardinals in a facility designed for 120. The Vatican has yet to clarify how these practical challenges will be addressed, but officials like Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni suggest it presents an opportunity to foster community among the electors.