NEW DELHI — Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharpened over the disputed Kashmir territory, following the tragic loss of 26 lives, mostly Indian tourists, in a massacre that India attributes to Pakistan. Pakistan, however, denies involvement in the gunmen attack that targeted tourists in Kashmir on Tuesday. The aftermath has seen both nations engaging in a series of provocative diplomatic and trade countermeasures, heightening concerns about potential military escalation.
Here are five critical reasons why the growing tension between India and Pakistan is significant:
Firstly, the attack in Kashmir could potentially lead to armed conflict between these neighboring countries. India, facing mounting domestic pressure, has hinted at possible limited military action against Pakistan in retaliation for what it describes as a “terror attack” with “cross-border links.” Pakistan has declared it would answer any military action in kind. This raises the fear that an intensification by either side could evolve into a broader war. The most recent conflict between the countries occurred in 2019, following a suicide attack that resulted in 40 Indian soldiers’ deaths in Kashmir. Although a ceasefire agreement was renewed in 2021 and had largely held since then, recent exchanges of fire have disrupted the calm.
Secondly, Kashmir serves as a nuclear flashpoint between the two adversaries. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed, and there are apprehensions that any conventional military conflict could escalate into a nuclear confrontation. After two significant wars in 1965 and 1971, India successfully conducted its first nuclear tests in 1974, setting off a nuclear arms race that saw Pakistan achieve the same capability in 1998. Notably, the 1999 border skirmish was only resolved following U.S. intervention, after taking numerous lives.
Furthermore, a conflict in Kashmir might draw in China. India and China are geopolitical rivals and clashed militarily in 2020 along their disputed Himalayan border. While relations have improved somewhat, they both still have substantial troop deployments at the border. With China’s borders also adjacent to Pakistan’s, this region represents the world’s only three-way nuclear junction. China, being a chief ally and arms collaborator of Pakistan, adds to India’s strategic worries. Given India’s robust defense relations with the U.S., foreseeing a conflict scenario not involving outside powers appears unlikely.
Fourthly, there is the potential of conflict over water resources. India has reacted to the violence by suspending an essential treaty that controls river water flow into Pakistan. Pakistan has warned that any halt in water flow from India could be seen as an “act of war.” The Indus Water Treaty obliges India to allow unhindered water flow in rivers affecting Pakistan, and any breach could severely impact Pakistan’s already water-deficient agriculture sector. This dispute underscores the significant environmental and resource allocation challenges both nations face as their populations burgeon amid climate change.
Finally, Kashmir remains a complex stage for militancy and human rights challenges. The U.N. and other human rights organizations have criticized New Delhi over the handling of Kashmir, citing civilian deaths and arbitrary detentions amid an intensified security clampdown by Indian forces. These actions have tarnished India’s human rights image and raised questions about whether global powers are applying enough pressure on India for accountability. Meanwhile, militants opposing Indian sovereignty have also been responsible for civilian casualties, exacerbating regional stability threats. India continues to argue that its military interventions are necessary to counteract “terrorism.”