A recent assault on tourists in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir has heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, pushing the two South Asian neighbors closer to a potential conflict. This escalation follows both nations reducing diplomatic relationships, suspending trade, shutting the primary border crossing, and terminating visa issuance for citizens from each respective nation.
Tuesday’s attack, which resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists, mostly Indian nationals, occurred at a picturesque location in the Himalayas. India alleged calm had been restored in the area despite ongoing resistance movements, and blamed Pakistan for the attack, though Pakistan denied involvement. An unfamiliar militant group, identifying itself as Kashmir Resistance, claimed responsibility.
The deeply-rooted conflict between these two nuclear-armed countries centers around the contested Himalayan territory of Kashmir. Decades of confrontation, tense diplomacy, and shared distrust have predominantly been shaped by competing claims over this region. Numerous insurgents, opposed to Indian rule, support either joining Pakistan or forming an independent Kashmir. India accuses Pakistan of fueling unrest, which Pakistan consistently refutes.
In response to the violence, India took steps to weaken bilateral relations. Measures included downgrading diplomatic representation, halting a crucial water-sharing agreement, and rescinding visas issued to Pakistani citizens. Furthermore, India is set to significantly decrease its diplomatic presence in Pakistan, and similarly reduce Pakistani diplomatic personnel in New Delhi.
Pakistan labeled these Indian actions as reckless and retaliated by canceling visas for Indians, ceasing all trade with India—including indirect routes—and closing its airspace to Indian flights. A potential flashpoint arises from India’s decision to suspend their water-sharing treaty, with Pakistan cautioning that any attempt by India to alter the river flow could be seen as an act of war.
Established in 1960 with the World Bank’s oversight, the Indus Water Treaty is a crucial agreement governing the allocation of river waters, vital for both nations’ sustenance. The treaty has withstood past conflicts, including wars in 1965 and 1971, and provides India control over eastern rivers while Western rivers are managed by Pakistan.
Pakistan asserts the treaty is legally binding and prohibits unilateral termination; it deems the agreement vital for national interests, as reneging on it could trigger water shortages amidst prevailing drought and decreased rainfall affecting Pakistan’s substantial populace.
Regarding diplomatic accords, Pakistan has also hinted at potentially withdrawing from the Simla Agreement. This important peace treaty, signed post the 1971 war and the secession of Bangladesh, solidified the Line of Control, a heavily militarized yet unofficial border demarcating disputed sections of Kashmir. Both sides pledged to reconciling all disputes bilaterally under this treaty.
Militant encounters have repeatedly undermined peace efforts over the years. Historical conflicts, such as the Kargil skirmish of 1999, resulted in considerable casualties before a U.S. intervention halted further combat. Other significant incidents include the devastating 2008 Mumbai attacks, linked to Pakistan-based militants, and the 2019 bombing that intensified hostilities and almost led to open warfare.
Following the 2019 attack, military clashes saw India strike targets within Pakistan, prompting retaliatory actions including the capture and subsequent release of an Indian pilot. The Indian government thereafter revoked Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status to enforce tighter security and suppress dissent within the region.
Amidst these tensions, worries about a nuclear confrontation loom large, as both India and Pakistan have fortified their military capabilities, possessing considerable nuclear arsenals and advanced warfare technologies. Since their respective nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998, both nations have stockpiled an array of sophisticated weapons, maintaining readiness against potential threats from each other.