The prominence of running backs in the NFL Draft has waned over the years. With the league’s increasing emphasis on passing, quarterbacks, pass rushers, and pass blockers have become the prized selections at the top of the draft. However, this year could be different due to a notably deep pool of running back talent alongside recent seasons where impactful running backs like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry emerged as free agent sensations. Ravens GM Eric DeCosta captured this sentiment at the scouting combine, reflecting on the past role of running backs and their recent undervaluation due to analytics. Yet, recognizing the pivotal contributions from top-tier backs, DeCosta noted, “If you have a great one, you’ve got a historic one.”
As draft day approaches, the pivotal question remains: How do teams evaluate players like Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton? Are these backs of the caliber deserving a high draft pick? In a mock draft, Jeanty was projected to potentially be picked sixth by the Las Vegas Raiders, marking a significant moment as it would be the highest a running back has gone since Saquon Barkley’s second overall selection in 2018.
Raiders GM John Spytek remarked on the transformative influence of players like Barkley, stating the importance of adding elite players at any position. Addressing the declining value of running backs, Spytek suggested there are numerous strategies for building a robust team, emphasizing the enduring significance of running backs in football’s history, especially at institutions like the University of Michigan.
Recent years have only seen one running back drafted in the top ten, with Bijan Robinson going eighth to Atlanta in 2023. In contrast, from 2015 to 2018, five running backs achieved top-ten selections, with notable mentions like Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey. However, the trend has shifted drastically, marking a departure from earlier decades when running backs frequently topped the draft boards, a scenario not witnessed since Ki-Jana Carter’s first overall selection in 1995.
Last year, Jonathan Brooks emerged as the earliest running back selection at 46th overall by Carolina. The average first fifty draft selections have only seen two running backs chosen in the past six years. This year’s draft class offers a rich variety of talent, with prospects like Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, and others, expected to be picked in the later stages.
The pivot from a run-dominant to a pass-focused league commenced with the 1978 rule modifications that simplified passing. This trend continues, with running’s share dropping significantly over the decades, reaching a historic low in 2014 before slightly rising recently. The era of the “bell-cow” back diminished as teams favored a running back committee approach. In past seasons, individual players achieving 300-plus carries have dwindled, creating emphasis on the contribution of a few, such as Barkley and Henry, who recently hit this milestone.
Bills GM Brandon Beane acknowledged a shifting perspective where running backs weren’t initially perceived as offensive threats. He assesses players based on their skill sets and potential mismatches they may create. Addressing the inclination to draft running backs, Beane highlighted, “I probably wouldn’t draft a running back that is 3 yards and a cloud of dust, but if it’s a weapon, like some of these guys, heck yeah I would.”
The declining prominence of the featured running back role is reflected in their pay scale, where Josh Jacobs’ leading contract ranks far below most other field positions. The compensation for running backs, as indicated by the $13.6 million franchise tag, remains the lowest among non-specialist roles.
The introduction of a rookie wage scale by the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, which outlines income based on draft position for four years, motivates teams to use early picks on high-impact roles like quarterbacks, tackles, and pass-rushers, providing financial leverage ahead of entering costly veteran agreements.
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah commented on the multifaceted nature of draft strategies. Evaluations hinge on various factors, including potential, performance ceilings, and the strategic advantage of contracts pre-dating the free agency marker, impacting decisions long before finalizing picks.